The "near-final" PR09 available to the Review has been analysed in each stage of the planning round to understand the 'squeeze' in the programme. Table 6-4 shows how the forecast spend for the first year of the EPP has changed during the planning round process for PR08 and PR09.
Total EPP near-cash spend in first year (£bn nominal) | Stage 1 | Stage 3 | 'Squeeze' (percent) |
PR08 | 6.7 | 5.8 | 14.0% |
PR09 | 6.8 | 6.0* | 11.7% |
Note: * PR09 stage 3 is after options and manual adjustments (as at 23rd April 2009) but is not the final EPP
Source: CapEP, Review team analysis
Table 6-4: Total EPP forecast spend in first year
Table 6-4 shows that there is a significant "squeeze" in the first year of each EPP, typically of 10% - 15%, during the planning round process to ensure it is affordable as planned. Some of the savings made will be in relation to better efficiency or removal of projects; it is likely that a large part of the savings will arise from deferring parts of some projects to later years (with consequences for the in-service date), to reduce overall in-year costs. Although this generates economies in-year, it is likely to increase the total cost to complete of projects affected. This is covered in more detail in Chapter 7.