7.3.2. Development of time and cost estimates for Demonstration and Manufacture phase during the Assessment phase

Table 7-3 sets out the findings of the analysis of forecast projections for the duration and cost of the Demonstration and Manufacture phase as it develops across the Assessment phase. This is by comparison of the estimates made at Main Gate with the estimates made at Initial Gate.

 

Average duration (months, MG50 - ISD50)

Average cost of D&M phase (£m)

Estimate at Initial Gate50

43

846

Straight average increase on a project-by-project basis to Main Gate50

+26%

(11 months)

+27%

(£228m)

Sample size

45

45

Source: CMIS, Review team analysis

Table 7-3: Average estimated duration and cost of Demonstration and Manufacture phase

The data in Table 7-3 demonstrate that the estimated duration of the Demonstration and Manufacture phase extends on average by 11 months (+26% of Initial Gate estimate) between Initial Gate and Main Gate and cost of D&M phase increases by £228m (+27% of Initial Gate estimate).