| Average cost of D&M phase (£m) | ||
| Estimate at Main Gate50 | 44 | 748 |
| Straight average increase on a project-by-project basis to Latest50 (75% mature) | +37% (16 months) | +13% (£97m) |
| Sample size | 91 | 49 |
Source: CMIS, Review team analysis
Table 7-4: Average duration and cost of Demonstration and Manufacture phase
It should be noted that within this aggregate view, there are some apparent patterns based on the maturity and scale of projects and also whether Smart Acquisition principles have been adhered to throughout the project's lifecycle. However, each of these based analyses is based on a limited sample of projects in each category and any conclusions should be treated as indicative only.
| Apparent observation | Project characteristic | Delay performance | Cost performance | Potential explanation |
| "Young" projects70 are significantly better than "older" projects | Young Old (75% mature) | 105% 137% | 93% 113% | "Young" projects are not sufficiently developed to establish whether slip or overrun will occur later in the project |
| Category A projects are worse than Category B or C projects | Category A (over £400m) Category B or C (£20m to £400m) | 141% 135% | 123% 100% | Sample bias towards more delayed projects. Larger projects are delayed more (in absolute terms) and therefore more likely to be present in any given "snapshot" |
| Smart projects appear to be better than non-Smart projects71 | Smart Non-Smart | 127% 143% | 99% 122% | Smart projects in this sample are much smaller and shorter than the EPP as a whole so cause and effect unclear |
Source: CMIS, Review team analysis
Table 7-5: Segmental highlights of the projects analysis
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70 Those less than 50% complete vs. latest forecast Demonstration and Manufacture phase duration
71 Non-Smart projects include projects post 1999 deemed to have followed non-Smart principles, e.g., follow on buys of Non-Smart projects