The growth in cost and duration between Initial Gate and ISD has significant implications across the current portfolio of projects. Applying the average duration growth of 81% (see Figure 7-6) and average cost growth of 42% (see Figure 7-7) to the Initial Gate forecasts of the category A-C projects that are currently active74, the overall impact of cost and duration overruns on defence acquisition can be estimated. This analysis is shown in Table 7-7.
| Assessment phase and Demonstration and Manufacture |
| Average duration | Total cost |
Initial Gate forecast of current portfolio of category A-C projects in CMIS | 67 months | £82.4bn |
Average percentage growth from Initial Gate to ISD | 81% | 42% |
Increase that would be observed in current portfolio | 55 months | £34.8bn |
Source: CMIS, Review team analysis
Table 7-7: Implications on the current EPP of duration and cost growth (indicative)
Table 7-7 indicates that the total expected cost overrun is c.£35bn and the average project is expected to slip by nearly 5 years.
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74 As at February 2009