37. A further dimension in assessing the status of Major Projects is the progress towards delivering the key capabilities specified by the ADF to be delivered by each project.
38. The 2010-11 MPR provides unclassified data on the DMO's level of confidence with achieving each project's key capability attributes (Measures of Materiel Capability Performance). These measures predominantly focus on the future achievement of certain technical, functional and safety requirements associated with the platform or system. As this data concerns forecasting future achievements, it has been excluded from the scope of the ANAO's review.25
39. Across the Major Projects in the 2010-11 MPR, the DMO's assessment is that it has a high level of confidence in delivering 94 per cent of the key capabilities associated with the projects. While the delivery of five per cent of the key capabilities is considered to be under threat, the risk is still considered manageable and able to be met.26 The DMO's key capability data shows three projects are assessed by the DMO as unlikely to meet some elements (one per cent) of capability. These are: Wedgetail, where the performance of the phased array radar will not meet the contracted specification at final delivery; MRH90 Helicopters, where the delivery of conforming supplies is highly unlikely to be achieved for the first maritime and land operational capabilities; and 155mm Howitzer, where some elements of capability are not currently available in the market place.27
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25 ANAO analysis of the DMO's Measures of Materiel Capability Performance is set out in paragraphs 2.66 to 2.68.
26 Noting the caution that needs to be exercised with year-to-year comparisons of Measures of Materiel Capability Performance, previously Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) data (see Table 2, Note 1), in the 2009-10 MPR, the DMO stated it had a high level of confidence in delivering 89 per cent of key capabilities for the 21 projects with MOEs.
27 Changes in the method of measuring Materiel Capability Performance have also impacted on this analysis, and are further discussed in paragraphs 2.65 to 2.68.