In-year Schedule Variance

2.32  Of the seven projects with 50 per cent or more schedule variance since original approval, four have reassessed their schedules again since the 2009-10 MPR. Figure 2.7 shows in-year schedule variance, as a percentage of the 2009-10 MPR project duration estimate.

2.33  The largest in-year schedule variance is attributed to the C-17, Bushmaster Vehicles and Air to Air Refuelling projects which have had in-year schedule variances exceeding 10 per cent.

2.34  While there is an apparent significant in-year variance for C-17 this is within the originally approved project schedule. The explanation for this apparent incongruity lies in previous schedule estimates anticipating achievement of FOC nearly one year early. This has now been reversed as the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) has determined that FOC will be achieved when permanent C-17 Globemaster facilities have been established at major RAAF bases and the training systems (minus the Cargo Compartment Trainer) have been set up in Australia which is anticipated for December 2011.

2.35  Similarly, the Bushranger project is now tracking against the FOC of April 2014, for Period Production 4 (PP4) vehicles, as approved by Government in May 2011. In the 2009-10 MPR the forecast FOC date related to PP3; during 2010-11 the FOC for PP3 has slipped in year from April 2012 to April 2013.

2.36  The Armidale Class Patrol Boat project shows a small schedule recovery, which indicates a more positive outlook for the remainder of the project and a small reduction in schedule variance since approval.

Figure 2.7: In-year FOC Schedule Variance, by project type

Note:  Joint Strike Fighter is currently developmental in nature but should ultimately become MOTS when it enters production line delivery.