Table 6 Average Recorded Optimism Bias for Traditional and PFI / PPP Projects

Recorded Optimism Bias (%)12

Traditional Projects

PFI / PPP Projects

17

47

41

2

-

1

5

2

Works Duration

Capital Expenditure

Operating Expenditure

Benefits Shortfall

Works Duration

Capital Expenditure

Unitary Payments

Benefits Shortfall

Risk Area Contributions to Recorded Optimism Bias (%)13

Traditional Projects

PFI / PPP Projects

Procurement

Complexity of Contract Structure

3

5

4

Late Contractor Involvement in Design

2

3

Poor Contractor Capabilities

8

5

1

Government Guidelines

Dispute and Claims Occurred

10

12

Information management

< 1

1

Other (specify)

< 1

< 1

4

86

Project Specific

Design Complexity

4

2

12

Degree of Innovation

5

3

12

Environmental Impact

1

3

Other (specify)

9

4

1

5

Client Specific

Inadequacy of the Business Case

24

38

100

5

15

34

25

Large Number of Stakeholders

1

Funding Availability

2

1

16

55

55

75

Project Management Team

2

2

Poor Project Intelligence

3

3

6

Other (specify)

2

1

Environment

Public Relations

< 1

4

Site Characteristics

4

2

9

Permits / Consents / Approvals

< 1

< 1

Other (specify)

1

1

External Influences

Political

3

30

Economic

8

6

33

Legislation / Regulations

3

3

2

2

Technology

2

< 1

Other (specify)

1

5

11