Table 17 Optimism Bias Upper Bound Guidance for Equipment/ Development and Outsourcing Projects

Upper Bound Optimism Bias (%)26

Equipment / Development

Outsourcing

54

200

-

-

41

Works Duration

Capital Expenditure

Works Duration

Capital Expenditure

Operating Expenditure

Risk Area Contributions to Upper Bound Optimism Bias (%)27

Equipment / Development

Outsourcing

Procurement

Complexity of Contract Structure

13

7

-

-

Late Contractor Involvement in Design

7

-

-

Poor Contractor Capabilities

11

4

-

-

Government Guidelines

-

-

Dispute and Claims Occurred

-

-

Information management

5

-

-

Other (specify)

-

-

Project Specific

Design Complexity

10

-

-

Degree of Innovation

20

17

-

-

Environmental Impact

9

-

-

Other (specify)

-

-

3

Client Specific

Inadequacy of the Business Case

20

18

-

-

52

Large Number of Stakeholders

-

-

Funding Availability

-

-

Project Management Team

5

-

-

Poor Project Intelligence

4

4

-

-

32

Other (specify)

-

-

Environment

Public Relations

-

-

Site Characteristics

-

-

Permits / Consents / Approvals

-

-

Other (specify)

-

-

External Influences

Political

-

-

Economic

-

-

Legislation / Regulations

4

5

-

-

Technology

19

18

-

-

9

Other (specify)

-

-