1.78 Table 1.F identifies some of the sources of information that Procuring Authorities might use to help them ascertain the levels of the Pre-FBC and Post-FBC Optimism Bias Factors to be used when assessing projects.
Table 1.F: Sources of Information for Optimism Bias Assumptions
Pre-FBC Optimism Bias | Post-FBC Optimism Bias |
Analysis of the experience of broadly similar (in nature and size) PFI and conventionally procured projects in the past. Databases and associated information are typically maintained by Departmental Estates Agencies. | Results from risk workshops already conducted by the Procuring Authority in relation to the project currently being assessed and identifying the project-specific risk characteristics and the extent to which these will be transferred to the private sector under either the PFI or conventionally funded procurement. |
Analysis of publicly or Departmentally available post-project implementation studies that expose the experience of cost and delay for PFI or conventionally procured projects. | Results from risk workshops conducted by other project teams when planning broadly similar investments to be procured using PFI or conventional funding. |
| Analysis of the experience of broadly similar (in nature and size) conventionally procured projects in the past. Databases and associated information are typically maintained by Departmental Estates Agencies. Care should be taken to clean data for any changes in scope that would have been a feature common to both procurement methods. |
| Analysis of publicly or Departmentally available post-project implementation studies that expose the experience of cost and delay for PFI or conventionally procured projects. |
| The published results of the Mott MacDonald Study. |