2.17 As a part of the Strategic Defence and Security Review process, all three Services conducted scenario modelling to assess the impact of various options to reduce headcount on Force structure and sustainability. This was done consistently across the three Services, to show a comparison, and used good quality workforce planning models. The Department had less detailed information on its civilian workforce so carried out some broad scenario analysis.
2.18 The Department has created profiles of the numbers of personnel it expects to leave through natural wastage. These profiles are based on its previous experience and, for the military, are based on forecast economic conditions. It has also created profiles of the numbers of personnel it will need to make redundant or release in each tranche. These profiles are regularly revised to reflect the predicted numbers of redundancies and releases. This is not unexpected given the scale of headcount cuts the Department is making and the difficulty of predicting how many people will apply to leave. The Department has yet to determine in detail how it will reduce the Army's headcount by a further 5,000 as required by the three month exercise, although it has determined the overall split of numbers of additional civilians who will need to leave through the Voluntary Early Release Scheme and natural wastage.