Performance against the mandate

1.60  Including all measures set out in the Autumn Statement, the OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook concludes that the Government remains on course to meet the fiscal mandate and the supplementary debt target. The OBR's judgement is that the Government's policies are consistent with:

•  roughly a 60 per cent chance of achieving the Government's fiscal mandate in 2016-17; and

•  meeting the supplementary target for debt in 2015-16.

1.61  Charts 1.8 and 1.9 show performance against the Government's fiscal mandate and the supplementary debt target. Slower progress in reducing the cyclically adjusted current budget deficit in 2011-12 and 2012-13 reflects the OBR's downwards revision to trend growth, consistent with evidence suggesting that financial crises are typically associated with large output losses that persist for many years after that event.