D.1 This annex provides details of sources of data in all the tables, charts and graphs in the Autumn Statement. In addition it includes some details of sources for data included in the text where for reasons of space it has not been possible to footnote those sources.
D.2 This annex ensures that the Treasury meets the standards set out by the UK Statistics Authority to comply with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. In particular, this document aims to meet two of the requirements of the UK Statistics Authority's Code of Practice for Official Statistics:
• to clearly distinguish between outturn data that are official statistics, and outturn estimates that are not published as official statistics.1 Examples of estimates that are not official statistics include, for instance, economic estimates calculated by the Treasury, which are constructed using assumptions, or judgements, or results of economic analyses that have a material effect on the resulting estimates;
• for outturn data that are official statistics,, to show where the source data and further information on those statistics can be found, ensuring that all the official statistics used in the Autumn Statement are robust and are published in an orderly and pre-announced manner. Where possible, sources are shown that are National Statistics.2
D.3 Full details of sources are only provided for outturn data up to 2010-11. Data for the 2011-12 year are a mixture of provisional outturn for the year to date, estimates and projections. Data for future years are forecasts. All of these projections and forecasts are outside the domain of official statistics, as are the estimates of the impacts of government measures or policy decisions, in that these are estimated, rather than measured or compiled using statistical processes.
D.4 Time series for data that are shown with Office of National Statistics (ONS) source codes can be downloaded from the ONS website at: www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/tsdintro.asp.
Data in table, chart or graph | ONS source code (if applicable) | Data Source | Further reference information |
Executive Summary: Summary of Autumn Statement policy decisions | |||
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| Autumn Statement 2011 policy costings | These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. |
Chapter 1, Paragraphs 1.11 and 1.12 |
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Real GDP growth | ABMI | UK Economic Accounts 2nd quarter 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2011/stb---qna-2011-q2.html. | |
Chart 1.1: Brent oil price | |||
Brent oil price, US dollar | Ecowin codes: com20440, com20445 | Ecowin | Brent crude oil averaged $80 in 2010. If the oil price remains at its current November level for the remainder of the year, the average price of Brent oil in 2011 would be $112. This would represent a 40 per cent increase compared with 2010. |
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Proportion of trade with Europe | GCQ8, KTMW | UK Balance of Payments (National Statistics) | UK Balance of Payments, Pink Book 2011, Table 9.3, available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united- kingdom-balance-of-payments/2011/tsd-pink-book-2011-time-series.html. |
Chart 1.2: Growth in the financial and non-financial sectors | |||
Whole economy GVA (£m CVM, reference year 2008), Index of financial and insurance activities GVA (CVM, reference year 2008) | ABMM, L2O6 | 2008 weight of financial and insurance activities in total Gross Value Added (GVA) is available in Table 2.4 of the UK National Accounts Blue Book 2011. | |
Chart 1.3: Trend output projections | |||
Budget 2008, June Budget 2010 and Autumn Statement 2011 trend output respective output gap assumptions. | KLS2 | Respective output gaps are used to derive a level of trend output relative to the latest ONS vintage of non-oil GVA, consistent with Blue Book 2011. Pre-2010 data for Autumn Statement 2011 is derived from the PCA estimates published in OBR Working Paper No.1: Estimating the UK's historical output gap. | |
Table 1.1: Summary of OBR's central economic forecast | |||
Pre-crisis decade average contribution and 2010 outturn | ABMI, NPSP, NPEL, DFEA, DKQH, NMRP, DLWF, CAFU, IKNK, IKBL | UK Economic Accounts 2nd quarter 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2011/stb---qna-2011-q2.html. | |
Indicators for 2011 to 2016 |
| See OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Chart 1.4: OBR forecast change in shares of GDP between 2010 and 2016 | |||
Outturn | YBHA, HAYE, ABJQ, NMRP, NPQS, IKBH, IKBI | UK Economic Accounts 2nd quarter 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/naa2/quarterly-national-accounts/q2-2011/stb---qna-2011-q2.html. | |
Forecast |
| See OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Table 1.2: Overview of OBR central fiscal forecast | |||
Outturn public sector net borrowing, surplus on current budget and public sector net debt | J5IJ, JW2V, HF6X | ONS Statistical Bulletin: Public Sector Finances October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/ public-sector-finances/october-2011/index.html. | |
Outturn Treaty Debt and Treaty Deficit | YEQJ, YEQG/ BKTL | ONS Statistical Bulletin: Government deficit and debt under the Maastricht Treaty October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-229604. | |
Primary balance | (-J5II-JW2L- JW2M+ JW2P)/ BKTL | ONS Statistical Bulletin supplementary document: Public Sector Finances October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-finances/october-2011/index.html. | |
Forecast data 2010-11 to 2016-17 |
| OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Cyclically-adjusted net borrowing, CA surplus on current budget |
| Economic estimates | These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects of assumptions and results from economic analyses that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. |
Figures for public sector current expenditure, public sector gross investment, and total managed expenditure |
| OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Effect of one per cent rise in effective mortgage rates on mortgage interest payments | Bank of England: VTXK | Bank of England | Loans outstanding, Mortgages - Lending secured on dwellings (Table A5.3 Bankstats), available at: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Bankstats/current/#1. |
Table 1.3: Impact of higher interest rates on debt interest payments | |||
Forecast debt interest cost of higher gilt rates |
| HM Treasury | Gilt rate information supplied by the Debt Management Office (DMO). Financing advice from HM Treasury. |
Table 1.4: Total consolidation plans over the forecast period | |||
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| Economic estimates | These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects of assumptions and results from economic analyses that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. |
Chart 1.5: Spread to 10-year German government bonds | |||
UK | GUKG10YR | Bloomberg | As at 25 November 2011. |
US | USGG10YR | Bloomberg |
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France | GFRN10YR | Bloomberg |
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Spain | GSPG10YR | Bloomberg |
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Italy | GBTPGR10YR | Bloomberg |
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Chart 1.6: Relative size of banking sector and fiscal position | |||
Structural deficit to GDP ratio |
| International Monetary Fund (IMF) | IMF's World Economic Outlook, September 2011 available from: www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2011/02/ppd/text.pdf. |
Bank assets to GDP ratio |
| IMF's Global Financial Stability report, September 2011, available from: http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/ GFSR/2011/02/sa/sa_table1.csv. | |
Chart 1.7: Receipts and expenditure | |||
Total Managed Expenditure on an ex basis: Outturn | JW2Q- JW2Z+ JW2S | ONS Statistical Bulletin supplementary document: Public Sector Finances Supplementary Tables October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ psa/public-sector-finances---supplementary-table/ october-2011/rft---supplementary.xls. | |
Total Managed Expenditure: Forecast |
| OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Public Sector Current Receipts consistent with PSNB ex (J5II) | JW2O | ONS Statistical Bulletin supplementary document: Public Sector Finances October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/public-sector-finances/october-2011/index.html. | |
Public Sector Current Receipts |
| OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Chart 1.8: Consolidation in the cyclically-adjusted current budget | |||
Consolidation in the cyclically-adjusted current budget |
| Economic estimates | These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects of assumptions and results from economic analyses that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. |
Cyclically-adjusted surplus on current budget |
| Economic estimates | These figures are calculated as economic estimates, including the effects of assumptions and results from economic analyses that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. |
Chart 1.9: Public sector net debt | |||
Public sector net debt outturn | HF6X | ONS Statistical Bulletin: Public Sector Finances October 2011, available at: http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/psa/ public-sector-finances/october-2011/index.html. | |
Public sector net debt forecasts | HF6X | OBR's March 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook, (Budget 2011 forecast) and OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
Proportion of trade with Europe | GC8Q - Exports to EU27 | UK Balance of Payments (National Statistics) | UK Balance of Payments, Pink Book 2011, Table 9.3 Available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/bop/united-kingdom-balance-of-payments/2011/tsd-pink-book-2011-time-series.html. |
| GCU9 - Imports from EU 27 |
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| KTMW - exports to world |
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| KTMX - imports from world |
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Number of businesses involved in trade with EU |
| Confederation of British Industry | Evidence provided to House of Lords Inquiry into Relaunching of Single Market, October 2010. Available at http://www.parliament.uk/documents/ lords-committees/eu-sub-com-b/singlemarketinquiry/ singlemarketwe221010.pdf. |
Number of UK jobs linked directly or indirectly to trade with EU |
| Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) calculation based on ONS data | UK and the Single Market, Trade and Investment Analytical Paper, BIS, February 2011. Available at: http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/international-trade-investment-and-development/docs/u/11-719-uk-and-single-market. |
Impact of Single Market on household income |
| BIS calculation. | As above. |
| European Commission | Steps towards a deeper economic integration: The Internal Market in the 21st Century, DG ECFIN European Economy Economic Papers. European Commission, 2007. Available at: http://ec.europa.eu/ economy_finance/publications/publication784_en.pdf Page 7. | |
Benefits of further progress in services and energy reform to GDP |
| European Commission | As above, Page 58. |
Tables 2.1, 2.3 and 2.4 | |||
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| Autumn Statement 2011 policy costings / Network rail (Table 2.3) | These projections are calculated from economic estimates, detailed costing models, and include numerous assumptions that have a material impact, and are therefore outside the domain of official statistics. The capital values of Network Rail investments were provided by Network Rail, the Office of Rail Regulation and the wider rail industry. |
Table 2.2: Total Managed Expenditure | |||
Figures for public sector current expenditure, public sector gross investment, and total managed expenditure |
| OBR's November 2011 Economic and fiscal outlook. | |
DEL plans are used for 2011-12 onwards |
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Table B.1: Revised financing requirement in 2011-12 | |||
Central government net cash requirement | RUUW | OBR forecast | Monthly ONS statistical bulletin: Public Sector Finances, available at http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/ psa/public-sector-finances/october-2011/index.html. |
Gilt redemptions |
| HM Treasury forecast | Profile of future gilt redemptions available at http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=Gilts/Gilts_In_Issue. |
Financing for the Official Reserves |
| As above | Policy decision to fund the Official Reserves by £6 billion in 2011-12 is set out in the Debt and reserves management report 2011-12, available at http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/2011budget_documents.htm. |
Buy-backs |
| As above |
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Planned short-term financing adjustment |
| HM Treasury calculation | Calculated from outturn DMO net cash position at 31 March 2010 less £0.5 billion. |
Gross financing requirement |
| As above | Calculated as the sum of the five items above it. |
National Savings and Investments (NS&I) |
| HM Treasury forecast |
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Net financing requirement |
| HM Treasury calculation | Gross financing requirement less contribution to financing from NS&I. |
Treasury bills |
| HM Treasury forecast |
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Gilts |
| As above (based on 2011-12 net financing requirement projections | Information on gilt sales available at http://www.dmo.gov.uk/index.aspx?page=About/About_Gilts. |
Change in the Ways and Means Advance |
| HM Treasury forecast |
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Changes in net short-term cash position |
| HM Treasury calculation | Total financing less net financing requirement. |
Total financing |
| As above | Sum of financing through gilts and Treasury bills. |
Treasury bill stock |
| As above | Treasury bill stock at end 2010-11 plus Treasury bill financing. |
Ways and Means Advance |
| As above | Ways and Means Advance at end 2010-11 plus Change in Ways and Means Advance. |
DMO net cash position |
| As above | DMO net cash position at end 2010-11 plus Changes in net short-term cash position. |
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1 The 'official statistics' label refers to a specified subset of the quantitative information produced by the Government and its nominated agents. Official statistics are produced and published in accordance with the provisions set out in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and in supplementary statistical legislation, and in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
2 The 'National Statistics' label applies to a distinct subset of official statistics which have been formally certified by the UK Statistics Authority to be compliant with the professional standards set out in the code. Public bodies that produce National Statistics have a statutory duty to continue to comply with the code.