The Canadian Urban Transit Association (CUTA) has estimated the infrastructure requirements of transit systems across the country to be $20.7 billion for the period 2006-2010.
In late 2005, CUTA surveyed its transit system members, asking them to detail their capital infrastructure needs for the next five years. Seventy systems responded; they represented 96.6% of total Canada-wide transit operations according to annual operating costs.
Transit systems were asked to divide their needs into four groups:
1. Currently planned rehabilitation/replacement
2. Rehabilitation/replacement contingent on external funding
3. Currently planned expansion/ridership growth
4. Expansion/ridership growth contingent on external funding
Of the $20.7 billion required, 44% is needed to rehabilitate or renew existing infrastructure, while 56% is needed to expand service capacity for ridership growth. These figures speak to the dual need of replacement and of response to the growth potential for transit. Indeed, restoring transit infrastructure to a state of good repair and responding to the increasing mobility needs of the growing Canadian urban population are both critical.
Equally notable is the split between projects that are part of current plans (79%) versus those that are contingent on external funding (21%), which suggests a significant shortfall in funding for the period 2006-2010.
Transit systems estimate they will need almost $9.1 billion during the period just to keep their equipment in a state of good repair. Even though the average age of the Canadian transit bus has decreased from 11 years to 10 years since the last infrastructure survey was completed in 2005, it is still well above the recommended vehicle age of 6 to 9 years. While rehabilitation and replacement projects totalling $7.3 billion are currently planned, it is important to note that many of these investments have not yet been budgeted by the municipalities and local authorities in question, nor are they assured of receiving approval.
Transit systems estimate they will need to invest $11.6 billion on expansion between 2006 and 2010 to meet projected demand. While there are tentative plans to invest $8 billion, much of the work that needs to be done cannot proceed without the assistance of the federal and provincial governments.
It will be difficult to combat traffic congestion, air pollution and increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions without these investments.
The trends are nonetheless encouraging, in that the total infrastructure needs have stabilized , after rising constantly since the late 1990s. Furthermore, the proportion of these needs that appear possible under existing funding programs has increased from half to three-quarter. This can be attributed in large part to the federal government's role in providing greater infrastructure investment in recent years, and now through the transfer of a portion of the federal gas tax to municipalities.
Over 68% of the total amount is needed by Canada's three largest census metropolitan areas (CMA) - more specifically, the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), York Region Transit (YRT) and GO Transit in the Greater Toronto Area; the Agence métropolitaine de transport (AMT) and the Société de transport de Montréal (STM) in Montréal; and TransLink in Vancouver. Added pressure from the increasing population of these CMAs reflects one of the many challenges public transit systems are facing in these urban centres and their surrounding suburbs.
The trends evident in comparing the infrastructure needs between 1999 and 2006 suggest transit infrastructure needs have increased 144% from $8.5 billion to $20.7 billion but are now stabilizing.
The results from this survey convey a clear message. If Canada's urban transit infrastructure investment needs are to be met, and if transit is expected to carry an increasing share of urban travel, there needs to be continued investment by both federal and provincial governments. For any government infrastructure strategy to be successful, it must provide long-term reliable funding. Transit systems require financial certainty if they are to successfully plan to meet the needs of Canadians now and in the future.