3.19 Under the most probable scenarios explored in Network Rail's Route Utilisation Strategies (RUS), inter-city passenger demand (which has grown strongly over the last 10–15 years) is likely nearly to double over the next 30 years. Although making more efficient use of existing railway infrastructure could accommodate some of this growth, it is likely that substantial increases in infrastructure capacity on inter-urban routes will be needed in the long term.
3.20 The RUS analyses show that there is considerable pressure on the lines from London to the North and West, particularly where long distance services share the network with other services. It is expected that train service capacity on the West Coast Main line will be exhausted by the 2020s and that the Midland Main Line and East Coast Main Line will need extra capacity in one form or another. Although passenger numbers are expected to rise throughout this period, it is anticipated that, over the next decade, planned capacity increases will be sufficient to manage this, although forecasts looking forward to the early 2040s suggest that crowding levels on long distance services will continue to rise.
3.21 There are various options for enhancing network capacity which would also create significant opportunities to improve connectivity and reduce journey times. It is important that the full range of benefits of such options is considered in assessing the most appropriate way forward.