Monte Carlo analysis

5.73  Monte Carlo analysis is a risk modelling technique that presents both the range, as well as the expected value, of the collective impact of various risks. It is useful when there are many variables with significant uncertainties. It can be a useful technique but expert advice is required to ensure it is properly applied, especially when risks are not independent of each other. Before undertaking or commissioning such an analysis, it is useful to know how data will be fed into the model, how the results will be presented, and how decisions may be affected by the information generated. An example of Monte Carlo analysis is provided in Annex 4.