2.3.6  Probabilities

Probability is an important component for most risks regardless of the type of distribution, as there is a chance (or probability) that the risk event will occur and a chance the risk event will not occur. An example of this is provided in the Risk 3 example above. For other risks it is simpler to assume that there is a 100 per cent probability that the risk event will occur, and then accounting for the probability directly in the values for the distribution (e.g., CMin, CMod, and CMax, for a triangular distribution). This is particularly relevant for risks such as delays which tend to happen on almost all projects (i.e., 100 per cent certain), but with different consequences.