2.3.7 Correlation

Correlation is a systematic pattern that can be seen in the occurrences of events. A positive correlation means that as one value increases, the other value increases as well. A negative correlation means that as one value increases, the other value decreases. Correlation does not imply causation. Correlation values range from -1 to +1, and a value of zero indicates no correlation. During the business case stage, correlation is often assumed not to exist. This is a conservative assumption and tends to understate the aggregate risk value.

If correlation is pursued, correlation is typically assigned as follows:

Figure 14: Typical Correlations

Low positive correlation

+0.3

Medium positive correlation

+0.5

High positive correlation

+0.7

Low negative correlation

-0.3

Medium negative correlation

-0.5

High negative correlation

-0.7

The correlation values, if and when assigned, need to be loaded into the statistical software.