The investment planning for the new hospital was thorough and sound.
There was detailed analysis of redevelopment options and the government was given appropriate information and analysis at major decision points in the investment planning process.
A 'network response' to paediatric services in Victoria has been identified since 2002 as a key strategy to meet observed increases in service demand but the detail of the implementation process is still under consideration by DHS.
Delays in sufficiently developing models of care for the new RCH-and the absence of a defined network approach to paediatric care in Victoria-at the time of service planning added to the complexity of the planning process for the new hospital. However this lack of a strategic framework did not invalidate the planning outputs.
Clarity around models of care and the RCH role in the wider health network are significant for service planning as they:
• assist in defining the service delivery approach
• inform the forecasting for service demand
• ultimately define the design parameters and facility requirements for a new hospital.
Models of care were sufficiently developed by the project brief stage and continue to evolve.
Service demand for the new RCH was projected using a forecasting model. There was limited evidence to show clinician involvement in adjustments made to overcome a number of known limitations of the model.
The forecasts of future service demand in the RCH service planning process were based on a declining birth rate forecast made by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). This was the most appropriate and up-to-date data source available at the time. However, more recent ABS data indicates that the actual birth rate increased in Victoria over the period 2001 to 2005.
The new RCH has 50 more beds than the existing RCH and DHS has demonstrated that this greater capacity-together with the inherent flexibility and potential capacity for growth in the design of the new RCH-should handle currently projected increases in service demand.
However, DHS has not yet determined, or advised government, when this additional future capacity may need to be taken up.