Benefit Cost Ratio Sensitivity Testing Complete the following table for all core options as a summary of the results of the sensitivity testing undertaken. The Appraisal Guidelines refer to seven types of area of uncertainty to test: • Capital costs • Construction duration and therefore opening date • Operating (including maintenance) costs • Under and over estimation of the benefits (typically demand for the service) • Changes in global oil prices • Fluctuations in carbon prices; and • Different population growth/decline scenarios and set out the value of each benefit for each forecast year. Additional sensitivity tests are recommended on key parameters, such as the annualisation factors or the value of travel time adopted. Worst case scenarios should also be tested (costs +30%, benefits -30%). | ||
Sensitivity test # | Variation | Benefit-Cast Ratio (BCR) |
0 | Starting result | .... |
1 | Discount rate 4% | .... |
2 | Discount rate 10% | .... |
3 | .... | .... |
4 | .... | .... |
5 | .... | .... |
etc | Etc | .... |