In cases where there are problems with project revenues as compared to the original projections, these are occurring in projects where the Provider is bearing usage risk, i.e. the road projects with "real" - user-paid - tolls. The evaluation included five projects of this type. On two of them, traffic is either at, or above, the original projections. On the other three, traffic is below projections. The "hit rate" is therefore quite poor, although all the roads are at an early stage of operation, and long-term trends may improve. This result is similar to the findings of the evaluation "EIB Financing of Urban Development Projects in the EU", 2003, www.eib.org/publications, where opening year traffic in eight out of eleven projects was below forecast. Evidence from other transport studies shows that there is typically a gradual increase of demand over the first one-two years of opening. However, five of the eleven urban development projects still suffered from traffic which was lower than forecast after that period.
There is a risk that the pricing on a real-toll road inhibits the use of the infrastructure. PJ expressed concern about this on one project in a relatively less developed region of the EU. The evaluation did find that the traffic was below expectations, but it is too early in the operation of the project to reach any firm conclusions. Two projects evaluated in-depth for other evaluations, found that "willingness to pay" was a serious issue. In one of those cases, social and political pressure to reduce the level of tolls led to the renegotiation of the PPP contract. In another EIB-funded project, the same issue has led to the Promoter "buying out" the Provider's rights under the PPP contract. In the one shadow-toll project evaluated in-depth, the traffic is below the Provider's projections, but this is not a major issue because the structure of the shadow-toll payments is such that even a significant drop in traffic does not affect revenues. The Promoter, rather than the Provider, is taking most of the traffic risk. In this case the Promoter is not concerned by the current traffic levels: they are close to its original projections, which were lower than the Provider's.
The projects based on availability, where revenues depend on providing the service as specified, are all meeting revenue projections.