2.44 The estimate of the value of risk retained by the public sector under the CPAM and the PPP option will be dependent on the reliability of the assumptions underlying the risk analysis. Hence for any key assumptions which are made when assessing the values and probabilities of risks, sensitivity analysis should be used to test their robustness.
2.45 Given the uncertainties in some of the assumptions underlying the risks analysis, it is recommended that an estimate for risk transfer in bespoke project risk analysis should be made under a best case scenario, worst case scenario and most likely scenario (see Appendix 2 for details).
2.46 It is likely that the sensitivity analysis will concentrate on the assumptions made for the probabilities and financial impact of different values of risk occurring. If a weighting and scoring analysis has been used to assess the non-quantifiable risks, it may also be worth conducting sensitivity analysis on the weights and scores attached to the more significant risks.