Single point probability analysis

16.  At its most basic, a risk analysis could consist of an estimate of the cost of each risk occurring, multiplied by a single probability of that risk occurring in a particular year.

17.  For example, the risk of cost overruns of a particular service may be estimated as:

 

Annual cost of service

£2m

 

Estimated impact of risk of cost overrun

£200,000

 

Estimated probability of risk occurring

10%

 

Estimated value of risk = £200,000 x 10%

= £20,000