An example of the detail expected in an FBC on an individual risk that is quantified in the risk analysis is set out below. It would be recommended that the most likely outcome is "costed".
Risk reference: | 4.8 | |
Category: | Operating cost risks | |
Risk: | Incorrect estimated cost of maintenance | |
Definition: | The cost of building and engineering maintenance may be different to the expected costs. | |
Impact on: | The general up-keep and maintenance of hospital buildings. Will impact upon the availability of facilities. | |
Commentary: | The NHS body has allowed £500,000 per annum in the Public Sector Comparator to carry out repair and replacement work to maintain the new facilities at estates condition B. The risk is quantified as the possible difference in costs from the estimated cost of maintenance on an annual basis. | |
Level of risk retained by NHS body: | CPAM: 100% | PPP: 0% |
Outcome per annum | £'000 | Worst | Medium | Best | Timing |
Probability | % | 15 | 70 | 15 |
|
Evidence for assumptions: | • Best case: adequate provision for maintenance made |
| • Medium case: maintenance costs underestimated by 20% |
| • Worst case: maintenance costs underestimated by 50% |
| The values and probabilities were estimated on the basis of the NHS body's own experience and on the professional advice of [the NHS body's technical advisers]. |
PPP contract reference: | Schedule [ | ] Payment Mechanism: availability |
| Schedule [ Agreement | ] Estates and Maintenance Service Level |