Please detail existing Termination Provisions in the Project Agreement in the event of Authority Default.
Please provide a quantitative analysis demonstrating the relationship between the Refinancing Gain and the likelihood of the Authority bearing increased Compensation on Termination liabilities under the Authority Default scenario. Please include detail of assumptions used in calculations.
Please complete the following table:
Element (Indicative structure - revise as appropriate) | Year 5 (from refinancing) | Year 10 | Year 15 | Year 20 |
Post refinancing level of termination liabilities |
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Pre refinancing level of termination liabilities |
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Increase in termination liabilities |
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Probability Factors for Authority Default | ||||
High |
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Medium |
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Low |
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Increase in termination liabilities x Probability of Authority Default | ||||
High |
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Medium |
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Low |
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Total NPV of Refinancing Benefit |
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Surplus of Refinancing Gain over termination liabilities x Probability | ||||
High |
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Medium |
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Low |
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Please also present a statistical analysis on cumulative basis. This should take account of the fact that if you have a refinancing gain of £5 and extra potential termination liabilities in a given year of £10, whilst the comparison of those two figures is useful information it is not the full story - an authority should not draw the conclusion that it could be comfortable with a probability of termination in that year of 50%. Termination could take place in any one of the years remaining; with these example numbers and a probability of termination in any year of 50% the authority would have a benefit of £5 but an additional exposure of the best part of £10. Also show the crossing point where additional exposure versus benefit becomes neutral.