RESULTS

The Øresund Fixed Link connects Denmark with Sweden across in the Øresund Sound. This multi-modal bridge-island-tunnel facility provides the final link in connecting the counties of Western Europe now part of the European Union. The project experienced cost overruns of 25 percent for the coast-to-coast sections of the Øresund Bridge and over 70 percent for the landside infrastructure than first projected and ultimately represented one-third of the total project cost. This can be attributed in part to "scope creep," where the landside road and rail projects grew far beyond their original dimensions.

Initial traffic on the facility came in well below projected levels, thereby lowering the amount of revenue produced by the facility. Planning projections estimated 10,000 vehicles per day for the roadway in the opening year, along with 16,500 to 19,000 rail passengers. But in calendar year 2001 (the first full year of operation), even after a toll reduction, the average daily traffic was only 8,100 road vehicles and 13,400 rail passengers. This was due in part from stiff competition from ferries that have traditionally operated on the Sound, especially for commercial freight traffic seeking a lower-cost alternative. However, the facility is still fairly new, and the typical ramp-up period for traffic growth has not had time to be fully realized.

Because of the higher costs and lower initial revenues, the "self-financing" of the facility is currently in doubt. Even under a high-growth scenario, with aggressive assumptions about regional economic growth and trip-making, the facility will not likely be repaid until 2029 or 2030. Under more moderate assumptions, that period extends to 2035, and under a "stagnation" scenario (where traffic growth has slowed to 1% per year by 2025), the period extends to 2046 and beyond.