Table 5. Sensitivity of Concession Price to Certain Parameters

 

Base Case 

Case 2

Case 3

Case 4

Case 5

Case 6

Concession Term

99 years

23 years

99 years

99 years

99 years

23 years

Compound Annual Growth in Tolls

3.78%

3.78%

2.08%

3.78%

3.78%

2.08%

Annual Growth in Traffic

1.23%

1.23%

1.23%

0.23%

1.23%

0.23%

Annual Growth in Operating Expense

3.45

3.45

3.45

3.45

2.20

3.45%

Discounted Value of Cash Flows (a)

$1,881,815

$1,060,359

$1,088,477

$951,773

$1,900,493

$446,281

Discounted Value as Multiple of

 

 

 

 

 

 

EBITDA

65x

37x

38x

33x

55x

15x

(a) US$000; discounted at a 9.38%. The discounted value equals the concession price plus transaction fees.

Source: Authors' calculations.