12 Many commuters face increased crowding at peak periods until planned investment delivers more carrying capacity. For example in the worst affected area, passengers being carried to and from London at peak times in 2006 (the latest date for which information is available) were on average 3.5 per cent in excess of the planned capacity required (up from 2.7 per cent in 2004). The morning peak had reached 4.8 per cent in excess of such capacity. In the short term, most train operators seek to respond to fast-growing passenger demand mainly through making better use of existing rolling stock (such as changing interior layouts and better train plans) and using ticket pricing to try to spread out peak demand. In addition six out of the eight new franchises have an obligation to introduce additional carriages quickly. The franchises we examined provided for an average seven per cent increase in fleet capacity.
13 The Department also plans to increase capacity in most franchise areas by negotiating changes in franchises to introduce 1,300 more carriages (see Figure 11). This will involve commercial negotiations between the Department and most train operators before the end of each franchise period. These negotiations will focus on the impact on the train operator's revenues after allowing for increased costs they incur for leasing extra carriages.
14 The Department has negotiated commitments to improve the quality, reliability, accessibility and security of passenger services, for example through station refurbishment and investment in rolling stock. Crowding and fare increases may offset some of the impact of these commitments on passenger satisfaction. There is to date, however, no established trend in passenger satisfaction on the recent franchises that are already in service and it is too early to assess those let in 2007. There have, however, been difficulties for one train operator (First Great Western) in meeting its first year plans and the Department has issued a formal notice requiring remedial action to reduce train cancellations.
15 Since June 2003, most commuter and other regulated fares have risen at one per cent above the retail price index, although some increases in non-regulated fares have been substantially higher. Some fare increases have been significant. For example, Stagecoach South West Trains raised some unregulated fares by 20 per cent in 2007. Incentives to travel outside peak and shoulder peak periods, however, have been maintained, or increased by special low fare offers, to ease crowding for commuters paying increased fares.