3.27 When the scheme was first conceived, the National Beds Inquiry9 had identified the need for more beds in the NHS. The 2000 OBC accepted this starting point and planned for 1,000 beds. By November 2002 this had risen, on the basis of detailed modelling, to 1,200. By October 2003 this had fallen to 1,088 and in the final scheme (May 2005) had been reduced, on the basis of planning and collaboration between the Campus partners and Primary Care Trusts, to 835 NHS beds and 88 private beds.
3.28 By late 2004 the Strategic Health Authority and the Department were concerned about having too many hospital beds in north west London. The NHS was developing PFI schemes at Hillingdon NHS Trust (£271 million, 500 beds) and North West London Hospitals NHS Trust (£305 million, 600 beds) in addition to that proposed for Paddington. The Department told the Strategic Health Authority that this was a matter that needed a plan, but not a resolution, for the OBC to be approved.
3.29 In December 2004 the Strategic Health Authority had estimated that there were 300-400 surplus beds in the sector, although in poor accommodation, and in January it calculated that St Mary's alone, if in-patient stays were reduced to national averages, could release 110 beds. St Mary's was using different planning assumptions to those used by the Strategic Health Authority, but intended that the planning assumptions used by both would be reconciled and agreed once the OBC had been approved. After an exercise in February-March 2005, the Strategic Health Authority concluded that there was a need to reduce hospital capacity in north west London by 500-600 beds - the equivalent of a medium sized hospital.
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9 Shaping the Future NHS: Long Term Planning for Hospitals and Related Services, Department of Health, February 2000.