Question 126 (Helen Goodman): Example of different discount rates and the benefits for the public sector

The Code of Conduct recommends that that discount rate should be equivalent to the base case shareholder internal rate of return (IRR). In the case of the Norfolk & Norwich this was 18.94%.

Applying a discount rate of 18.94% per annum to both the pre and post refinancing equity cash flows, produces a refinancing gain (ie the difference) of £115.501 million. The Trust was then entitled to a share of this gain.

Applying a discount rate of 3.5% per annum real to the two cash flow series, produces a refinancing gain of £47.163 million. Again, the Trust would only have been entitled to take a share of this gain.

The variation in the refinancing gain can be explained by looking closely at the profile of the two cash flow series.

In the pre-refinancing scenario much of the shareholder return was at the end of the concession. Discounting these equity cash flows at a high discount rate means that their present value is relatively low. Using the same high discount rate to the post refinancing cash flows has a dramatically different effect. The shareholders have exchanged returns in the future for up-front returns. The acceleration of shareholder returns means that these amounts are relatively unaffected by the high discount rate.

 

Pre-refinancing

Post refinancing

Refinancing gain

Present value at 18.94% of the distributions occurring after December 2003

£35.372 million

£150.873 million

£115.501 million

Applying a low discount rate (3.5% real) to the pre-refinancing equity cash flows, and the present value of the back ended returns is maintained at a high level. In the post refinancing scenario the accelerated returns paid up front when combined with the ongoing but lower future returns still exceed the previous level.

 

Pre-refinancing

Post refinancing

Refinancing gain

Present value at 3.5% real of distributions occurring after December 2003

£162.473 million

£209.636 million

£47.163 million