2.16 The Department and PfS currently estimate that the total capital cost of the programme over 2005-2023 will be between £52 and £55 billion at 2007-08 prices, a real increase of £7 to £10 billion (16 to 23 per cent) from earlier estimates after allowing for inflation (measured by GDP deflators). The main causes of the increase have been:
■ the Department provided additional funding for Special Needs facilities, Voluntary Aided schools and carbon reduction measures (about £4.2 billion);
■ the original estimate assumed building costs would rise with general inflation, but building cost inflation is now estimated to have averaged 6 per cent a year between 2005-06 and 2007-08 (twice the estimate of general inflation), costing about £3 billion; and
■ inclusion of the Academies programme to be delivered through the PfS framework (about £1.2 billion).
2.17 To meet these costs and complete the programme by 2023 would require the Department to increase its annual average capital allocation to BSF from £2.5 billion in the 2008-11 spending review period to between £3.4 to £3.7 billion from the next spending review period onwards.