Criterion

Risk if criterion not met

National Audit Office's assessment of action taken against criterion

Risk evaluation

1

There is systematic commitment to a sustainable community and processes and plans in place to ensure the characteristics of a sustainable community are taken into account.

Inadequate direction and planning to achieve a sustainable community

The three main parties involved in the project - EP, MDL and Greenwich council - have all made key statements committing themselves to a sustainable community and have taken significant actions and drawn up significant plans to achieve this. EP has experience in creating sustainable communities through its work with the Greenwich millennium Village which is now a well advanced development on the Peninsula.

2

There are environmentally sound, quality buildings. (Environmental soundness defined in terms of the code for Sustainable Homes).

Poor quality buildings that people do not want to live in and which impoverish their quality of life

NAO's property consultants for the study, Drivers Jonas, concluded it was very likely that these standards would be achieved throughout the development.  The outline planning permission for the project requires MDL to achieve excellent BREEAM ratings for buildings to be verified by the Building Research Establishment (BREEAM is an accepted standard for sustainable design issues). MDL's 2006 Business Plan contains an objective to 'make the Greenwich Peninsula a world leader in design measured in terms of quality and innovation'. From April 2007 EP is required to meet level 3 of the code for Sustainable Homes. By the end of the development new buildings will have to achieve level 6 (the highest rating).

3

There is reasonable provision of affordable housing. (The Housing corporation told NAO 30 to 40 per cent would be an appropriate range).

Inadequate social diversity - community alienated and disconnected from surrounding society - failure of community to contribute to wider social good

A target of 38% of affordable housing has been set out in the planning agreement and is enforceable by Greenwich council. MDL have included provisions in their 2006 Business Plan to monitor achievement of this target and ensure compliance.

4

There is a mix of provision of housing for different types of people (e.g. housing with different numbers of bedrooms) and a mix of types of tenure. The development is 'tenure blind' - there are no visible indications of type of tenure.

Inadequate social diversity - community alienated and disconnected from surrounding society - failure of community to contribute to wider social good

The planning agreement requires MDL to provide a number of different types of tenure - social rented, privately owned, part-socially rented, part-bought, sold at discount. It also requires a mix of types of housing - e.g. one-bedroom, two-bedroom. 350 sheltered accommodation places are also provided for elderly people. There is provision in the development plans for student accommodation of 120, but MDL plan to provide accommodation for about 450 students in 2008. key workers on the Peninsula and workers on the Peninsula from disadvantaged groups will be eligible for consideration to benefit from the affordable housing in the development.

5

People will actually buy or rent homes in the development - they will settle in the development in sufficient numbers to form a sustainable community.

Not enough people to form a thriving community - inadequate diversity

There was wide agreement from a number of sources the NAO consulted that the development would be able to find takers at reasonable prices for the development's housing. A sustainable community, however, needs a certain critical mass of settlement for other developments on site to thrive. This is a challenging risk to manage because a critical mass cannot be achieved until residential housing is progressed and this will mean insufficient demand for other services. These services, however, equally need to be developed alongside residential housing for the development of a mixed-use and sustainable community.

6

There is a sound and diverse economic base and availability of jobs both locally and outside the area.

Community is not financially viable - poor economic opportunities for people in the community - people do not work or work outside the community, which becomes a dormitory area with little community spirit

The project plans envisage that the final development will include 343,600 square metres of commercial space, 33,750 square metres of retail space and will provide for 24,000 new jobs. 18,000 of these are forecast to be in the office development.  These plans if achieved would provide the development with a robust, sustainable economic base. Some of the land scheduled for commercial development has had to be reserved because of uncertainty about what land will be needed for the planned Silvertown Link (a river crossing between the Royal Docks and the Greenwich Peninsula); there is a risk that not all the office space will be marketable over the whole life of the project; no skills targets have yet been set for future job provision; and neither MDL nor EP have contingency plans for the event that insufficient jobs are generated.

7

There is adequate provision of shops, retail, leisure, entertainment and other activities.

Poor quality of life - people have to travel outside the community to socialise and shop

The project has plans for significant retail provision and land use for this has been allocated. MDL's 2006 Business Plan analysis predicts retail growth of 3 per cent a year and that there will be healthy retail demand on the Peninsula. But the Sustainable Development commission identifies a risk from its general research of Growth and Regeneration areas that there may be difficulty in attracting retailers to new developments because of insufficient early market demand. This risk may be mitigated for the Greenwich Peninsula development by the fact that there is already significant customer footfall in the Peninsula from The O2, the North Greenwich interchange and (in the near future) Ravensbourne college. Even in the absence of new retail provision in the development itself, there is significant availability of retail at easily accessible distances in and around The O2 and the retail park to the south of the development.

8

There is adequate and diverse transport for the development. (Does the development overall provide adequate parking, rail and tube transport, pedestrian and cycling facilities, bus and river transport? Has an adequate assessment and risk analysis of transport provision been carried out.)

Community is isolated - people do not want to settle or remain there - business does not want to invest

An in-depth Transport Assessment was produced which endorsed the MDL Masterplan as providing a robust transport strategy. Detailed targets and obligations to meet the need have been firmly embedded in the outline planning permission and in MDL's Business Plan. £22 million of investment has been allocated to transport upgrades by MDL. This is in addition to further planned investment by TFL on tube and bus route enhancements.  The project is well-served by the Jubilee Line, bus links and a network of cycleways and footpaths. There are, however, risks from divided strategic control of transport, heavy dependence on and overloading of the Jubilee Line, competition from other developments which are better served by public transport (e.g. Stratford) and perceived weaknesses in liaison with the local community about transport plans. Dependence on the Jubilee Line is decreasing - The O2 Thames clipper river service opened in 2007 and the Greenwich Waterfront Transit (for delivery in 2011) and crossrail will alleviate problems in the longer term. completion of planned upgrades to the Jubilee Line will also increase capacity by 23 per cent by 2009.  TfL consider that competition from Stratford was understood at the time the planning application for the Peninsula was determined and the transport assessment recommended various mitigation measures. Local perceptions that TfL's communication about transport plans could have been better, is thought to result specifically from one instance where bus routes were changed prior to the opening of The O2.

9

There is adequate provision of an infrastructure of utilities for the development. ((a) electricity (b) gas (c) water (d) sewerage (e) telecoms).

Poor quality of life - people do not want to settle in the community or stay there

MDL have legal obligations under the project Land Disposal Agreement to make appropriate utility provision consistent with the development Masterplan, Environmental Policy and common development obligations. EP has discretion to issue leases and licences in support of this. MDL has an objective in its 2006 Business Plan to deliver utilities infrastructure and the objective is supported by a number of strategies and action plans. MDL has been carrying out an ongoing detailed utility assessment since the inception of the project. MDL's lifetime investment in utilities is projected at £55m. This is in addition to substantial investment in utilities provision to the site made by EP before the inception of the project.

10

There are good schools.

Poor quality of life - affluent parents will not want to settle or stay in the community

An analysis of the requirement for educational provision was carried out as part of the outline planning stage of the development and has been updated by Greenwich council. To meet the requirement, the planning permission requires MDL to provide a primary and secondary school on-site and funding for additional primary and secondary provision off-site. A good existing primary school already exists on the Peninsula and provision for the planned secondary school, the John Roan School, is in advance of pupil place demand. Secondary school results in Greenwich, however, are poor. The NAO were told that there is a risk that if schools on the Peninsula have continued levels of low attainment this will deter families with children from remaining on the Peninsula once their children reach secondary school age. The John Roan school will be developed under the Building Schools for the Future initiative which aims to deliver transformational change in education. It should be noted that it is difficult for EP to have a direct influence over the quality of school provision. EP also considers that parents in London are more likely to send their children to schools outside their immediate catchment area than in other parts of the UK.

11

There is good health care and other community social care provision.

Poor quality of life - people will not want to settle or stay in the community

The Environmental Impact Assessment submitted as part of the outline planning application identified health care requirements for the development.  The outline planning permission requires MDL to fund health care provision, provide a health care centre and submit a community Services Plan part of which covers health care. Greenwich council must approve the level of health centre provision and is in a position to ensure that requirements are met. MDL has to fund intermediate care facilities before 3200 dwellings are occupied and, in the initial phase of development, residents can use health facilities in the Greenwich millennium Village and outside the Peninsula: this ensures that there is no gap between early occupation of the development and provision of health facilities. Overall, therefore, on present evidence, the criterion is on target to be met.

12

There is a clean, safe environment with security against crime and anti-social behaviour.

Poor quality of life - high crime reduces community spirit, promotes sense of alienation - people will not want to settle or stay in the community

The planning documents provide for a Low Emission Zone to reduce vehicle pollution (the first such Zone in the UK) and a waste disposal strategy. MDL, in agreement with EP, is funding strategies to promote an injury free and crime free culture.  EP has agreed that the developer should apply minimum environmental standards to all development plots - these standards cover low energy use construction, reduced car and road use, reduced waste and use of water and greater recycling. The Environment Agency told the NAO that they regard the development as 'a best practice example for a number of environmental issues'. The MDL 2006 business plan has an objective to minimise real and perceived risk of personal accident and crime on the Peninsula. This is supported by funded strategies.

13

There is management of flood risk.

People are deterred from settling or staying in the community - possible physical damage to fundamental physical infrastructure of community

The Environment Agency told the NAO that MDL had put in place good flood defences, and the Agency has monitored MDL's compliance with flood regulations. MDL and Greenwich council told the NAO that they relied on and complied with advice from the Agency for this aspect of the project. The Agency, however, also told NAO that flooding was a major issue for the Thames Gateway areas in general. The Agency through the Thames Estuary 2100 project is assessing the options to manage the flood risk until the end of the century taking into consideration climate change and the related sea level rise.

14

There is reasonable provision of green spaces, parks, open recreational areas.

Poor quality of life - people will not want to settle or stay in the community

The outline planning permission requires MDL to agree a plan for open spaces on the development with the council, to implement the plan, to maintain the open spaces and to provide for the public to have access to the open spaces. The development includes extensive green spaces - 1/6th of development site is given over to parkland and public open space. There is a four acre ecology park, river terracing, and a detailed plan to protect and enhance the area's wildlife and habitats. There are also measures to promote low car use. The Environment Agency was very positive about this aspect of the development, noting to NAO that the development is a good one with substantial sustainable development features including a number related to green spaces - e.g. Dome Waterfront Ecology Park, introduction of ecological reed beds and extensive green roof top pumping station.

15

There are measures for the development to work towards carbon neutrality.

Failure to contribute to wider social good

In 2006, EP agreed a legally enforceable standard with MDL for carbon emissions for development plots of 30 kilograms per square metre per year. They also agreed standards for low carbon emission buildings and measures to reduce car use in the development (e.g. 0.7 car parking spaces per dwelling). MDL plans significantly to exceed the standards for low carbon emission buildings.

16

There is provision for the wider community in Greenwich and for the community in the development (as it emerges) to be consulted about the development (excluding consultation about transport).

Poor sense of belonging to a community and being responsible for it

There is extensive consultation prior to each planning application by MDL and Greenwich council. MDL also consult after planning applications through a consultative community forum of local interest groups. In addition, there is separate consultation on design issues, MDL's arts strategy and MDL's education and business programmes. The council's consultations include neighbouring Boroughs where appropriate. New residents to the Peninsula will be included in these consultative processes. EP told NAO that this programme of consultation would continue throughout the development. MDL told NAO that it considered consultation and engagement of the community as very important to the regeneration of the Peninsula. NAO held a focus group of interest groups and residents from the Peninsula and the surrounding area: feedback on the amount and quality and results of consultation with MDL were positive, especially in regard to consultation with disabled groups. Two academic experts employed by the NAO to observe the focus considered the consultation had, subject to some caveats, been 'well thought out and comprehensive'.

17

(A) There is 'good governance' - that is, there are arrangements for the community to govern and manage itself and run a management company which has powers to maintain and manage the estate. (B) There is clear provision for an 'estate management function.

Poor sense of belonging to a community and being responsible for it

No decisions have yet been taken about how arrangements for governance and representation will be taken forward. EP and MDL are currently in discussions about this subject. MDL and Greenwich council have still to reach agreement about the estate management function and responsibilities for managing the public realm (roads, area maintenance etc). Given the project is now four years old, we thought there was a risk in not having yet resolved these issues. We note that an Agreement has been reached with the London Borough of Greenwich to adopt all principal highways and with Southern Water to adopt sewers and a site pumping station.

18

There are measures in place or planned to create a sense of identity and a recognisable brand for the development and project. There is provision for some focus for community activities likely to help produce a sense of community (e.g. a community centre, arrangements for use of local schools for community activities).

Poor sense of belonging to a community - poor sense of pride in the community

The planning agreement commits MDL to finance and promote cultural events and community projects, provide civic art, and provide and finance a multi-faith community centre. In its 2006 Business Plan, MDL includes a £2 million funded strategic objective to increase the 'brand awareness' of the Peninsula through a web- site, Business centre, a communications strategy and relationships with key stakeholders. How successful these measures will be is uncertain at this stage. In addition, many possibly key influences such as governance and estate management arrangements have still to be settled (see criterion 17). There are concerns about how the running costs of the multi-faith community centre will be met. EP does, however, have experience in creating community identity through its work on the Greenwich millennium Village.

19

There are things for people to do, to enjoy themselves in their leisure time in reasonably satisfying and rounded ways: facilities for socializing - leisure facilities, restaurants, night life etc.; and cultural provision. (Including facilities for office workers and students - e.g. lunch time eating establishments, lunchtime shopping).

People have to travel outside to socialize - impoverished quality of life - little sense of attachment to or pride in community - community is unattractive as place to settle or stay

The planning permission requires MDL to pay Greenwich council £1m for playing fields and agree with Greenwich council to provide a leisure facility and up to £1/2m towards securing access to it. In addition The O2 alone should provide a wide range of leisure facilities, restaurants etc. The development plans also make provision for cultural activities (see under criterion 18 above).

20

The development possesses some iconic building or other feature which can act as a symbol and focus of the community.

Poor sense of belonging to a community - poor sense of pride in the community

MDL's 2007 Strategic Plan identifies The O2 as an asset of this type. Advice from some members of the NAO's expert panel was that the Dome was associated with failure and controversy - but if AEG make a success of The O2 (and indications so far are good), it may function in this regard in the future. The relocation and rebuild of Ravensbourne college on the Peninsula should provide (according to plans and drawings) another striking and innovative iconic building. Overall, we assessed the prospects against this criterion as good.

Key

 Project has plans in place and the potential to meet criterion

Not yet clear that project will meet criterion

Significant risk that criterion will not be met with critical effect on prospects for achieving a sustainable community

Source: National Audit Office analysis