2.47 In comparison to the PFI deal cost of £746.1 million for the contracted services, MOD estimated that the cost of a conventionally procured project would fall in the range £690 million to £807 million.7 Given the uncertainties inherent in comparing 30-year forecasts of project costs, the appropriate conclusion from these figures is that the deal will cost a similar amount to a conventional procurement.
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7 The range of £690 million to £807 million falls within the 95 per cent confidence level with a 5 per cent chance that the actual cost would fall outside of this range (see Figure 11).