Revenue forecasts for start up businesses are subject to great uncertainty

 There have been several recent examples of high profile start up projects whose business plans have depended on forecasts of usage by members of the public, and these forecasts have turned out to be highly optimistic.5 As bidders' forecasts of revenues from the fledgling Eurostar UK business were in line with previous estimates made by the Department and British Rail, the Department did not seek to have them independently validated. Moreover, in the absence of proven demand, it was not possible for either party to this deal to be sure that forecast revenues would be sufficient to support LCR's planned stock market flotation. Eurostar UK's poor performance weakened LCR's financial strength to such an extent that its ability to fund the Link was destroyed. As a result the entire project came close to collapse.




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5  The Millennium Dome (HC 936/1999-00) and The Re-negotiation of the PFI-type Deal for the Royal Armouries Museum in Leeds (HC 103/2000-01)