Risk Quantification
Ref | Risk category | Risk definition | Risk allocation for PFI option | Initial high level assessment (High [H], Medium [M] or Low [L]) | Detailed quantification of high and medium risks | |||||||||
Cost impact £'000s | ||||||||||||||
LA | SP | Share | Probabilty of occurrence (H/M/L) | Cost impact (H/M/L) | Overall significance (H/M/L) | Probability of occurrence % | Timing | Cost Base | Minimum | Most likely | Maximum | |||
1 | Develop | Business Case |
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2 | Develop | Compliance with Best Value Review (pre Contract Award) |
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3 | Develop |
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4 | Develop |
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5 | Develop | Data Room |
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6 | Develop | Development Costs |
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7 | Develop | DfT Approval and Funding in place |
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8 | Develop | Economic Case (AST) |
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9 | Develop | Execution and Delivery of Documents |
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10 | Develop | Licences |
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11 | Develop | Local Authority Agreements in Place |
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12 | Develop | Local Authority Approval and Funding in place |
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13 | Develop | PRG Approvals in place |
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14 | Develop | Procurement Costs |
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15 | Develop | Project Affordability |
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16 | Develop | Project Specification |
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17 | Develop | Stakeholder Consultation - Members/Users/Others |
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18 | Develop | Value for Money Assessment |
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19 | Develop | Vires |
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20 | Design | Access Agreements and Consents |
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21 | Design | Changes in Design Standards & Codes of Practice |
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22 | Design | Changes in design due to influences external to the Local Authority & Service Provider |
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23 | Design | Changes requested by Service Provider |
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24 | Design | Changes requested by Local Authority |
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25 | Design | Compatability with Existing Systems |
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26 | Design | Compensation Delay Events |
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27 | Design | Compliance with Design Standards/ Codes of Practice |
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28 | Design | Compliance with Good Industry Practice |
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29 | Design | Compliance with Output Specification |
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30 | Design | Compliance with Quality Standards |
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31 | Design | Compliance with Statutory Requirements/Responsibilities |
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32 | Design | Compliance with Third Party Requirements |
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33 | Design | Continuing Development of Design |
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34 | Design | Design Costs |
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35 | Design | Design Delays and Amendments |
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36 | Design | Design Records |
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37 | Design | Design warranties from Sub-Contractors |
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38 | Design | Failure to turn Output Specification in to Design Brief |
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39 | Design | Failure to develop design in required timetable |
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40 | Design | Fitness for purpose (is the design satisfactory to meet operational requirements?) |
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41 | Design | Force Majeure Event |
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42 | Design | Force Majeure Termination |
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43 | Design | Health & Safety Case (including CDM) |
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44 | Design | Legislative/Regulatory Change - Design Requirements |
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45 | Design | Local Authority Omissions or Defaults |
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46 | Design | Local Authority Policy Changes |
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47 | Design | Other Consents & Agreements |
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48 | Design | Planning Approvals/Consents / Permissions |
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49 | Design | Programming of Works |
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50 | Design | Public & Third Party Consultation |
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51 | Design | Redesign/Design Defects |
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52 | Design | Relief Events |
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53 | Design | Testing Design Solution |
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54 | Design | Third party claims |
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55 | Install | Accommodation works for Third Parties |
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56 | Install | Accuracy of Inventory and all Surveys |
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57 | Install | Achievement of Design Standards |
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58 | Install | Archaeological and Historical Finds |
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59 | Install | Capital Costs Overrun |
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60 | Install | Changes requested by Service Provider |
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61 | Install | Changes requested by Local Authority |
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62 | Install | Changes to Output Specification |
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63 | Install | Compensation delay events |
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64 | Install | Compliance with the agreed Investment Programme |
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65 | Install | Compliance with Good Industry Practice/Codes of Practice |
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66 | Install | Compliance with Output Specification |
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67 | Install | Compliance with Quality Standards |
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68 | Install | Compliance with Statutory Requirements/Responsibilities |
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69 | Install | Condition of Underground Supply Network |
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70 | Install | Connection Arrangements (including Delays) |
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71 | Install | Consequences of Early Termination - Service Provider Default |
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72 | Install | Consequences of Early Termination - Local Authority Default |
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73 | Install | Contamination/Hazardous Materials |
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74 | Install | Service Provider default |
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75 | Install | Cost of Alterations |
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76 | Install | Delays caused by Utilities/Statutory Undertakers |
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77 | Install | Disruption |
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78 | Install | Electrical Safety of all Apparatus & Equipment Installed |
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79 | Install | Electrical Testing |
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80 | Install | Emergency Services Liaison |
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81 | Install | Employer's Liability |
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82 | Install | Environmental Liabilities/Damage |
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83 | Install | Failure to Install to Design Standards/Design Brief |
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84 | Install | Fire and Theft |
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85 | Install | Force Majeure Event |
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86 | Install | Force Majeure Termination |
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87 | Install | Fossils and Antiquities |
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88 | Install | Ground Conditions |
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89 | Install | Hazardous Waste |
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90 | Install | Health & Safety (including CDM) |
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91 | Install | Heritage/Conservation Area Works and Compliance |
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92 | Install | Highway Works |
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93 | Install | Implementation Issues to comply with planning legislation |
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94 | Install | Inclement Weather |
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95 | Install | Incorrect cost estimates |
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96 | Install | Incorrect time estimates |
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97 | Install | Industrial Action |
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98 | Install | Intellectual Property |
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99 | Install | Installation Costs |
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100 | Install | Installation Delays |
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101 | Install | Interruption |
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102 | Install | Labour Costs and Availability |
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103 | Install | Labour - Conduct, Claims, Recruitment, Restructuring etc. |
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104 | Install | Latent Defects - Existing Structures and Apparatus |
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105 | Install | Legislative / Regulatory Change - British/EU Standards |
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106 | Install | Legislative / Regulatory Change - Discriminatory |
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107 | Install | Legislative / Regulatory Change - General |
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108 | Install | Legislative / Regulatory Change - Lighting Specific |
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109 | Install | Local Authority Default |
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110 | Install | Material Costs & Supply |
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111 | Install | Peacetime Emergency |
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112 | Install | Planning Approvals/Consents/Permissions/Other Consents |
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113 | Install | Plant & Equipment |
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114 | Install | Project Management & Supervision |
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115 | Install | Protester Action |
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116 | Install | Public Liaison and Consultation |
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117 | Install | Relief Events |
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118 | Install | Rights of Way |
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119 | Install | Service Diversions (including costs and delay) |
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120 | Install | Site Availability and Access |
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121 | Install | Site Preparation |
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122 | Install | Site Safety |
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123 | Install | Site Security |
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124 | Install | Statutory Undertakers/Utilities Works |
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125 | Install | Structural Integrity of Apparatus |
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126 | Install | Sub-Contractor Default |
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127 | Install | Terrorism. War, Insurrection or Invasion |
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128 | Install | Testing |
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129 | Install | Third party claims |
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130 | Install | Third party damage |
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131 | Install | Third Party Liaison, Consultation and Interface |
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132 | Install | Trade Union Liaison |
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133 | Install | Traffic Management |
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134 | Install | Unforeseen ground/site conditions including structures |
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135 | Install | Uninsurable Risks |
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136 | Install | Vandalism |
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137 | Install | Volume Changes - Boundary and/or Classification |
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138 | Install | Waste Management |
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139 | Finance | Availability of Project Finance |
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140 | Finance | Bonds and Warranties |
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141 | Finance | Changes in Government Funding of Local Authorities |
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142 | Finance | Change of Control of SPV/Consortium |
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143 | Finance | Change in Status of Local Authority - LGR etc. |
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144 | Finance | Corrupt Gifts and Payments |
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145 | Finance | Exchange Rate Changes |
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146 | Finance | Failure to deliver Project Finance |
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147 | Finance | Financial Performance of Service Provider / Consortium |
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148 | Finance | Funding for additional works or changes |
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149 | Finance | Income Generation Targets |
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150 | Finance | Inflation |
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151 | Finance | Insurance - Public Liability |
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152 | Finance | Insurance - Others |
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153 | Finance | Interest Rate Changes - before Contract Signature |
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154 | Finance | Interest Rate Changes - post Contract Signature |
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155 | Finance | Market Conditions |
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156 | Finance | Payment for Services |
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157 | Finance | Receipts - Disposal of Assets |
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158 | Finance | Receipts - Third Party Revenues |
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159 | Finance | Refinancing |
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160 | Finance | Revenue/Profit Share above agreed percentages |
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161 | Finance | Residual Value of Apparatus |
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162 | Finance | Service Provider or Consortium Insolvency/Bankruptcy |
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163 | Finance | Sub Contractor Insolvency/Bankruptcy |
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164 | Finance | Sufficiency of Funding to meet Output Specification |
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165 | Finance | Taxation Changes - before Contract Signature |
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166 | Finance | Taxation Changes - post Contract Signature |
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167 | Finance | VAT Changes |
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168 | Comm | Compliance with Output Specification and Contract |
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169 | Comm | Costs of Rectification |
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170 | Comm | Delayed Completion of Connections |
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171 | Comm | Delayed Completion of Installation |
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172 | Comm | Failure of Electricity Supplier |
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173 | Comm | Health & Safety Case |
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174 | Comm | Incorrect time and cost estimates for Commissioning |
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175 | Comm | Licence Award |
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176 | Ops | Accident Damage & Knock-downs |
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177 | Ops | Accuracy of Asset Register/Surveys/Mgt Information System |
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178 | Ops | Adequacy of all Cabling |
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179 | Ops | Adoptions resulting from New Development |
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180 | Ops | Apparatus obsolescence/Availability of Spare Parts |
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181 | Ops | Best Value - Annual Service Report |
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182 | Ops | Best Value - Benchmarking & Market Testing |
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183 | Ops | Best Value - Customer Satisfaction & Consultation |
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184 | Ops | Best Value - BVPP & BVR |
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185 | Ops | Changes in Design Codes of Practice (Operations) |
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186 | Ops | Change in cost of providing the service |
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187 | Ops | Changes in Local Authority Policy |
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188 | Ops | Changes in National Policy |
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189 | Ops | Changes requested by Service Provider |
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190 | Ops | Changes requested by Local Authority |
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191 | Ops | Changes to Inventory |
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192 | Ops | Climate Change Levy |
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193 | Ops | Commercial Viability |
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194 | Ops | Compensation Delay Events |
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195 | Ops | Compliance with Good Industry Practice |
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196 | Ops | Compliance with Quality Standards |
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197 | Ops | Compliance with Statutory Requirements/Responsibilities |
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198 | Ops | Compliance with Output Specification |
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199 | Ops | Consequences of Early Termination - Service Provider Default |
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200 | Ops | Consequences of Early Termination - Local Authority Default |
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201 | Ops | Consequences of Market Testing |
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202 | Ops | Contract Monitoring |
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203 | Ops | Service Provider Default |
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204 | Ops | Service Provider Termination |
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205 | Ops |
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206 | Ops | Depot maintenance |
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207 | Ops | Detection of Outages |
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208 | Ops | Disruption |
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209 | Ops | Electrical Safety of all Apparatus |
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210 | Ops | Electrical Supply and Connections |
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211 | Ops | Electrical, Mechanical and Structural Testing |
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212 | Ops | Emergency Repairs |
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213 | Ops | Employer's Liability |
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214 | Ops | Energy Costs |
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215 | Ops | Energy Management |
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216 | Ops | Energy Supply and Usage |
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217 | Ops | Environmental Liabilities |
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218 | Ops | Failure to meet Performance Standards |
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219 | Ops | Fault Rectification |
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220 | Ops | Fire and Theft |
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221 | Ops | Force Majeure Event |
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222 | Ops | Force Majeure Termination |
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223 | Ops | Health & Safety (including CDM) |
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224 | Ops | Inclement Weather |
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225 | Ops | Industrial Action |
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226 | Ops | Installation of Festive Lighting/Other |
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227 | Ops | Intellectual Property |
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228 | Ops | Inventory & Database Management |
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229 | Ops | Labour Costs and Availability |
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230 | Ops | Labour - Conduct, Claims, Recruitment, Restructuring etc. |
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231 | Ops | Lamp Cleaning and Replacement |
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232 | Ops | Latent Defects - Existing Apparatus |
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233 | Ops | Latent Defects - New Apparatus |
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234 | Ops | Legislative / Regulatory Change - British/EU Standards |
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235 | Ops | Legislative / Regulatory Change - Discriminatory |
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236 | Ops | Legislative / Regulatory Change - General |
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237 | Ops | Legislative / Regulatory Change - Lighting Specific |
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238 | Ops | Liaison with Emergency Services |
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239 | Ops | Lighting Failures |
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240 | Ops | Local Authority Default |
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241 | Ops | Industrial Action |
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242 | Ops | Maintenance & Repair Costs, including Protective Coatings |
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243 | Ops | Management & Supervision of Contract, including Sub-Contractors |
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244 | Ops | Material Costs and Supply |
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245 | Ops | Monitoring Costs |
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246 | Ops | Non-Performance of Apparatus |
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247 | Ops | Operating Costs |
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248 | Ops | Other Damage |
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249 | Ops | Parking Obstructions affecting operations |
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250 | Ops | Permits and Approvals |
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251 | Ops | Pollution |
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252 | Ops | Power Supply failure |
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253 | Ops | Provision of Depot |
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254 | Ops | Provision of Information to Local Authority |
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255 | Ops | Public Liability |
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256 | Ops | Public Liaison and Consultation |
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257 | Ops | Recovery of Third Party Damage Costs |
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258 | Ops | Relief Events |
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259 | Ops | Residual Value of Apparatus |
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260 | Ops | Restrictions on Advertising on Apparatus |
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261 | Ops | Security of Apparatus, Equipment and Vehicles |
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262 | Ops | Service Interfaces/Interfaces with Third Parties |
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263 | Ops | Service not to acceptable levels |
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264 | Ops | Statutory Undertakers/Utilities Works |
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265 | Ops | Step-In by Financiers |
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266 | Ops | Step-In by Local Authority |
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267 | Ops | Storm Damage |
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268 | Ops | Sub- Service Provider Default |
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269 | Ops | Technological Refresh |
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270 | Ops | Technological Obsolescence of Equipment |
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271 | Ops | Termination due to Government Intervention |
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272 | Ops | Terrorism, War, Insurrection or Invasion |
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273 | Ops | Third Party Claims |
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274 | Ops | Third Party Damage |
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275 | Ops | Third Party Liability |
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276 | Ops | Third Party Liaison, Consultation and Interface |
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277 | Ops | Trade Union Liaison |
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278 | Ops | Transfer of Undertakings (TUPE) |
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279 | Ops | Uninsurable Risks |
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280 | Ops | Vandalism |
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281 | Ops | Volume Changes - Boundary and/or Classification |
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282 | Ops | Volume Changes - Energy Consumption |
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283 | Ops | Waste Management |
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