Transferable
Allocation | Code | Risk | Timing | Description | Consequence | Risk Expert | Applied to | Base | Scenario | Consequence | Probability | Value |
Transferable | D1 | Cost overrun | Risk that construction costs are greater than estimated. | Delay in works commencement or completion and cost increases. | D&C Cost | (150,000) | ||||||
Below base amount | -5% | 5% | 375 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 10% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 15% | 50% | (11,250) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 30% | 20% | (9,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 40% | 15% | (9,000) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (28,875) | ||||||||||
D2 | Time Overrun | Risk that the construction timelines are not met. | Additional construction time and cost. | D&C Cost | (150,000) | |||||||
Below base amount | 0% | 5% | 0 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 20% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 10% | 40% | (6,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 15% | 30% | (6,750) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 20% | 5% | (1,500) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (14,250) | ||||||||||
D3 | Service Maintenance | Risk of increase in service maintenance during delay period | Additional construction time and cost. | (5,000) | ||||||||
Below base amount | 0% | 5% | 0 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 20% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 100% | 40% | (2,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 200% | 30% | (3,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 200% | 5% | (500) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (5,500) | ||||||||||
D4 | Upgrade Cost | Risk that refurbishment requirements are greater than anticipated | Increase in costs | Through-life capex | (40,000) | |||||||
Below base amount | -5% | 5% | 100 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 10% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 15% | 50% | (3,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 30% | 20% | (2,400) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 40% | 15% | (2,400) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (7,700) | ||||||||||
D5 | Construction Contingency Factor | Risk that cost of construction increases due to unforseen circumstances | Increase in costs | D&C and land acquisition | (155,000) | |||||||
Contingency factor | 2% | 100% | (3,100) | |||||||||
O1 | Operating Risk | Risk that operating costs are underestimated | Increase in costs | Operating Costs | (12,550) | |||||||
Below base amount | -5% | 5% | 31 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 25% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 15% | 40% | (753) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 29% | 25% | (924) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 40% | 5% | (251) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (1,897) | ||||||||||
O2 | Contingency factor (Operating Costs) | Increase in costs | Operating Costs | (13,550) | ||||||||
Contingency factor | 3% | 100% | (407) | |||||||||
O3 | Third party revenue risk | Risk that third party revenue differs from expectations | Increase in costs | Third-party revenue | (5,000) | |||||||
Above base amount | -10% | 15% | 75 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 50% | 0 | |||||||||
Below base: likely | 10% | 30% | (150) | |||||||||
Below base: moderate | 20% | 5% | (50) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (125) | ||||||||||
O4 | Maintenance Risk: General | Risk that maintenance costs differ from expectations | Increase in costs | 80% of the cost of maintenance and materials | (4,400) | |||||||
Below base amount | -5% | 5% | 11 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 15% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 15% | 45% | (297) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 28% | 25% | (308) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 50% | 10% | (220) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (814) | ||||||||||
O6 | Contingency factor (Maintenance & Materials) | Risk that operating costs are underestimated | Increase in costs |
| (5,500) | |||||||
Contingency factor | 3% | 100% | (165) | |||||||||
O7 | Performance Risk | Risk that KPIs are not met and State to incur costs to remedy | Delay and cost increases | - | (5,000) | |||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 70% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 100% | 30% | (1,500) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (1,500) | ||||||||||
O8 | Industrial Relations Risk | Risk of Industrial Relations disruptions | Increase in cost | - | (1,000) | |||||||
Industrial Relations Risk | 100% | 100% | (1,000) | |||||||||
O9 | Technology Risk | Risk of technical obsolescence | Adverse cost consequences in order to comply with the change. | Plant and equipment cost | (50,000) | |||||||
Below base amount | -20% | 20% | 2,000 | |||||||||
No deviation from base | 0% | 10% | 0 | |||||||||
Overrun: likely | 30% | 40% | (6,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: moderate | 40% | 20% | (4,000) | |||||||||
Overrun: extreme | 50% | 10% | (2,500) | |||||||||
Subtotal | 100% | (10,500) |