4 Housing PFI Sensitivities
HOUSING PFI - SENSITIVITIES & SCENARIOS |
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PFI Model Sensitivities: Commercial Indexation Only | White Cells should show PFI Model output changes resulting from the specific Sensitivities & Scenarios |
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Initial Sensitivities | Assessed Probability | Assessed Impact |
| Sensitivities | Total Unitary Charge | Capital Funding Gap (Surplus) Council upfront capital contribution required to SPV to reduce cost of scheme or one off upfront capital contribution to smoothing reserve | Revenue Affordability Gap (Surplus) Per Annum, £m Nominal | PFI Credit Requirement To Close Capital Funding Gap | |
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| High, Medium, Low | High, Medium, Low |
| Increase/ Decrease |
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Base Case |
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| n/a |
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Sensitivities |
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Annual Construction Indexation |
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| -1% | pa |
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Annual Construction Indexation |
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| 1% | pa |
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Annual Construction Indexation |
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| 2% | pa |
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Construction cost |
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| -5% |
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Construction cost |
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| 5% |
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Construction cost |
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| 10% |
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Life Cycle Indexation |
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| -1% | pa |
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Life Cycle Indexation |
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| 1% | pa |
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Life Cycle Indexation |
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| 2% | pa |
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Life Cycle Costs |
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| -5% |
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Life Cycle Costs |
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| 5% |
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Life Cycle Costs |
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| 10% |
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For Non-HRA Only:- |
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Rental Income Indexation |
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| -3% | pa |
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Rental Income Indexation |
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| -2% | pa |
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Rental Income Indexation |
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| -1% | pa |
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Rental Income Indexation |
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| 1% | pa |
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Rental Income Indexation |
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| 2% | pa |
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For Non-HRA Only:- |
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Service Charge Income |
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| -3% | pa |
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Service Charge Income |
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| -2% | pa |
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Service Charge Income |
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| -1% | pa |
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Service Charge Income |
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| 1% | pa |
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Service Charge Income |
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| 2% | pa |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Indexation |
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| -1% | pa |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Indexation |
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| 1% | pa |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Indexation |
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| 2% | pa |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Costs |
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| -5% |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Costs |
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| 5% |
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Annual Maintenance / Services Costs |
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| 10% |
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Annual Management / SPV Indexation |
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| -1% | pa |
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Annual Management / SPV Indexation |
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| 1% | pa |
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Annual Management / SPV Indexation |
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| 2% | pa |
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Annual Management / SPV Costs |
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| -5% |
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Annual Management / SPV Costs |
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| 5% |
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Annual Management / SPV Costs |
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| 10% |
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Effective Interest Rate |
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| -1% |
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Effective Interest Rate |
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| 1% |
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Effective Interest Rate |
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| 2% |
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Delay in Financial Close |
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| 6 | mnths |
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Delay in Financial Close |
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| 12 | mnths |
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Scenario 1: |
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Construction Cost |
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| 5% |
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Lifecycle Cost |
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| 5% |
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Delay in Financial Close |
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| 6 | mnths |
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Provide Other Scenarios Below for High / High, High / Medium, Medium / High Probability / Impact Sensitivities and include Risk Mitigation & Management Strategy for Key Risk Sensitivities and Scenarios in OBC |
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Scenario 2: |
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