1.31 Our previous report on the PPP was written at a time when NATS was still struggling with the operational and organisational changes, including the consequences of moving its Air Traffic Control operations for Southern and Central England to its new centre at Swanwick near Southampton. Disruption was compounded by the effects of breakdowns in key computer systems at its West Drayton centre, with average delays per flight to and from London peaking at over 4 minutes. In Summer 2002, half of all Europe's Air Traffic delays were concentrated in London (compared to 17 per cent in 2001).
1.32 Since then, performance has greatly improved as controllers have grown more familiar with the new systems at Swanwick, as computer systems have stabilised, and as shortages of staff have been addressed through a range of measures, including the use of additional voluntary attendances and earlier starts to morning shifts. Delays are now less than one minute a flight, compared to nearly three minutes in 2002. Looking ahead, NATS' investment programme is designed to cope with the possibility of higher than expected growth in traffic over the next ten years. Figure 7 shows NATS' plans for increases in capacity against peak hour forecasts of flights in the busy flight area around London and the South East. The base case demand line depicted has been updated by NATS from that shown in the NATS' 2002 and 2003 Business Plans. The high case and low case demand lines have not yet been updated and are expected to be revised down. So the apparent risk of a shortfall of capacity until 2009 should not be as significant as it appears.