3.11.3  Most Probable Cost (MPC)

When Section M identifies that the Cost/Price Factor will involve Government estimation of a MPC, Section L instructions must require offerors to provide both their proposed cost/price as well as their individual analysis of cost/price estimating uncertainty for ACAT I programs and other programs using MPC.  RFPs should direct offerors to refer to or actually provide a copy of the Air Force Cost and Risk Uncertainty Handbook, located on the FM Knowledge Now Website at  https://afkm.wpafb.af.mil/afcruh.  Offerors will be instructed to provide both their proposed cost/price and their analysis of uncertainty as part of the cost/price proposal volume.  

Note: ACAT SDD programs that use a Cost-Reimbursement or Fixed-Price Incentive type contract must perform a cost/price risk evaluation, which includes Government estimation of a MPC.  The cost/price volume, Section L instructions should address the cost/price risk rating evaluation.