3.2.3  Risk Analysis Tools

Tools for accomplishing risk analysis vary from informal brainstorming to fairly sophisticated automated methods.  Some of the more formal methods use risk matrices in the initial assessment that are then updated throughout the life of the program.  Some of the tools apply "Borda" mathematical techniques which are used for producing rank ordering of risks from highest to lowest, taking into consideration the two key aspects of risk - the probability of an undesirable outcome occurring or not occurring and the seriousness of the consequences (impact).  Whichever method is selected should include some basic sequential steps.  First and foremost is to understand our requirements and the relative importance of those requirements.  Other steps include identifying salient program characteristics (e.g., current technology and candidate products), identifying risks (e.g., technical, political, schedule, financial, etc.), ranking these risks, establishing risk handling strategies for each identified risk, monitoring progress, and documenting results.