3.2.5  Rating Risk Impact and Probability

The team works to build consensus regarding those risks and should focus on the things that can go wrong on a program or that may present obstacles to success. Impact and probability are rated separately for each risk.  Risk impact ratings are typically categorized as being critical, serious, moderate, minor, or negligible.  Risk probability ratings are associated with a number from 1 percent to 100 percent probability of a risk occurring.  Once identified and ranked, the more serious risk drivers should be carefully managed, while lesser ones can simply be monitored.  Ranking must take into account both the seriousness of the impact of the event or condition as well as the probability of it happening.  For example, a critical risk with a 50 percent chance of occurrence is most likely a lower priority than a serious risk with a 100 percent probability of occurrence.