Q121 Stephen Barclay: That wasn't the evidence we had previously, Mr Rutnam. What has changed?
Philip Rutnam: That's my understanding. I don't know which bit of evidence you are referring to.
Q122 Stephen Barclay: I am a constituency MP for a rural area. One of the issues that the NAO looked at is the overestimation of travel from cities and the underestimation of travel from rural constituencies. Take a small station, such as Littleport in my constituency. Cambridgeshire has the fastest growth, and there has been significant increase in willingness to travel, because of iPads and other technology, so the willingness to travel from a station like Littleport-which has totally inadequate parking, if I can add a constituency point-has increased exponentially, but it often gets recorded as travel from Cambridge. That was the evidence we heard at a previous hearing. One of the issues we explored was the lack of rolling stock's ability to scan people on and off. It surprises me, if we are buying new rolling stock, that we are not buying it with the latest technology.
Michael Hurn: As I said, I would need to check, but my understanding is that the trains will be able to understand the loading per carriage in terms of the number of people on the train.
Q123 Stephen Barclay: It sounds a bit like a blunderbuss approach, but the NAO can perhaps clarify.
Amyas Morse: Well remembered. I think you are referring to our study on increasing passenger rail capacity, primarily inter-city or rural to city centre. Certainly, those points came out of that study, because you have this attrition rate in loading. I remember we brought all that up. I suspect that it is a bit different in metropolitan areas.
Q124 Stephen Barclay: It just seems odd, Mr Hurn, that we are buying rolling stock that does not have the latest technology on it.
Michael Hurn: As I said, I don't have the information to hand. I can follow up with a detailed description of what is in the technical specification that allows that.
Q125 Stephen Barclay: So we can have a small number of people with big bags, and estimate that as the equivalent to lots of passengers?
Michael Hurn: I will be able to tell you what's in the specification for assessing loadings on the train.
Q126 Stephen Barclay: The wider charge, which I am sure will be disputed, is that there is a perception in rural communities like mine that the focus of investment has been very much on city to city travel, and the ability of those travelling from rural stations to get to those city hubs has been neglected. That is a separate debate and I am sure to an extent you would dispute that, but I struggle to understand how you base your investment decision without clarity as to the traffic flows from each of the stations. Certainly, they don't have Oyster scanning at Littleport station.
Michael Hurn: Our whole appraisal for the project is based on a transportation model that looks at demand, population and employment predictions. I would say that Thameslink also has a lot of investment outside London. It is not purely about the main termini. Yes, lots of work has been done at Blackfriars, Farringdon and London Bridge but we have undertaken lots of platform extensions outside London. The midland main line and the east coast main line are both examples. It is all about a commuter service into London and through London.
Q127 Stephen Barclay: With respect, that is a different point. In a way it makes my point because the platform that has been extended-and very welcome it is too-is around Cambridge where there has been significant work, but there has not been elsewhere on the line. What I am trying to tease out is that at a previous hearing it was very evident that the modelling that the Department does on passenger forecasting and even on existing passenger travel from city stations compared with rural stations was flawed. That was the evidence we had. That was two years ago. What comfort can you give the Committee that it is no longer flawed?
Michael Hurn: The comfort I can give to the Committee is that the Thameslink route network, which includes the east coast main line elements, clearly covers very crowded rail routes. In terms of the demand model, this project calibrates very well with the crowding of today. We are very confident that this projects deals with that overcrowding and provides capacity for growth. It calibrates very well-
Q128 Q128 Stephen Barclay: What do you mean by calibrate? Could you just explain that?
Michael Hurn: Of course. You have a run of the demand model based on today's network and today's demand and you compare it with the projected demand and the projected solution, which is Thameslink and the capacity improvements for the future. The difference between the two are the benefits of the projects. So the base-the first thing I talked about-is today's demand and today's network. In the model, a demand matrix of the model calibrates very well with today's demand-
Q129 Stephen Barclay: Yes, but if you can't have an accurate assessment of what the starting point is won't your model be flawed? You are doing a comparison between a projection which is not known. Let us look at the record of the Department: the projection on the east coast and the west coast lines were both flawed but for opposite reasons-one was too high and one was too low. By their nature, projections are going to be difficult. Events happen, such as the 2008 financial crash, which drive a coach and horses through projections, but you have to do your best with them. What concerns me, however, is the ability of the Department as of today to say, "The passenger flows from different stations are X and that is our starting point." Forgive me, but what I appear to be hearing is that two years on there has not been a significant change on that.
Michael Hurn: As I said, the demand model, the base demand model, calibrates very well with the existing observed demand patterns. We then have a forecast for the future based on the relative conservative growth assumptions, both peak and even more conservative, off-peak. We still have a very defensible business case for this project which is all about relieving congestion on some of the busiest rail commuter markets in the UK. I am absolutely confident that we have a very solid business case for this project.
Geraldine Barker: I was just wondering in relation to Mr Barclay's question whether the nature of the Thameslink routes-
Q130 Chair: Can you speak to the Committee please? You all tend to speak down there and we cannot hear it down this end.
Geraldine Barker: Sorry. In relation to Mr Barclay's question, I was just wondering whether the nature of the Thameslink route and the number of season ticket holders or commuters gives you better data than from some of the other routes.
Michael Hurn: Yes. By its very nature it is a commuter railway so we have that information in terms of season ticket sales. To repeat my point, this is a very crowded railway of today and on the investment and the projections, I am very confident that we have a business case which supports the investment.