The Audit analysis above shows the impact on Australia's urban transport systems of projected population growth in the major capital cities.
Demand for key road corridors is projected to exceed supply, particularly in the cities with less well-developed rail networks. Managing this demand will require integrated solutions likely to include additional capacity in both road and rail networks, and other demand management measures to support the efficient movement of vehicles that are most important for supporting economic development - trucks, commercial vehicles and road-based public transport. These demand management measures could include CBD parking levies, increased use of lanes for High Occupancy Vehicles and buses and, ultimately, road pricing.
Efforts to increase the density of our cities in response to demand for housing, especially around major transport nodes, have been modest to date. Notwithstanding significant challenges in this area, a greater emphasis on integrated transport and land use planning will be required to meet changing community expectations and to make the most of our existing and future transport networks.
Projected growth in trips to and from the major central business districts will require capacity increases, particularly in the public transport networks which already service the majority of trips to these regions. While the use of public transport has been increasing since 2004, currently only one in six Australians travel to work by mass transit.171 The Audit projects that demand for public transport (measured in passenger kilometres travelled) will increase by 89 per cent by 2031, indicating that governments will need to focus on expanding the capacity of existing services, as well as providing new infrastructure to communities in growth areas, often on the outskirts of urban areas.172
As public transport networks are expanded in urban centres, the issue of cost recovery will become increasingly important. At present, the average fare recovery in Australian cities is around 25 to 30 per cent of overall costs, with services to outer urban areas recovering less than 10 per cent of costs.173 In order to ensure the sustainability of services across urban mass transit networks, governments and service providers will need to improve efficiencies in terms of delivery and administration.
Public transport will also be an emerging issue outside of capital cities. Regional centres will require increased provision of public transport options in order to maximise economic opportunities for local communities and to improve access to health, education and other services.
Audit findings 48. Demand for urban transport infrastructure is projected to increase significantly. The cost of congestion in our capital cities, estimated at $13.7 billion in 2011, is expected to increase to around $53.3 billion in 2031, or around 290 per cent, in the absence of additional capacity and/or demand management. 49. Demand for many key urban road and rail corridors is projected to significantly exceed current capacity by 2031. 50. Urban transport decisions need to complement land use decisions (especially about the supply and affordability of housing). Although some improvements have been made in this area, there remains a risk that community resistance to land use change and higher densities will undermine the economic, social and environmental benefits of investment in urban transport. |
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171. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2014c)
172. Veich Lister Consulting (2014a)
173. Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (2014a)