7.2.2.3 Petroleum

The Audit makes the following projections for demand and DEC from petroleum product terminal infrastructure in 2031:

■ compound annual growth rate for the decade to 2020-21 is projected to be 1.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent for the 20 years to 2031;

■ the national DEC for petroleum product terminals is projected to be $1.7 billion, a 60 per cent rise in real terms between 2011 and 2031. This is a smaller than the projected 84 per cent increase in real GDP;

■ the largest growth will occur in Queensland, WA and Victoria. Growth projected for NSW is slightly lower, but still significant; and

■ at the audit region level, the greatest increases in DEC for petroleum product terminals between 2011 and 2031 are in greater Brisbane ($105 million), greater Perth ($100 million), greater Melbourne ($75 million), greater Sydney ($65 million) and Geelong ($33 million).

The projections of growth in throughput by state/ territory are shown in Table 26.

Estimates and projections for the DEC of petroleum infrastructure are shown in Table 27.

Table 26: Projections of growth in petroleum product throughput by state/territory

State/Territory

2011

2020-21

2031

CAGR 2011-2021

CAGR 2011-2031

ML/a

ML/a

ML/a

%

%

NSW

17,591

19,180

24,863

0.9%

1.7%

VIC

20,727

23,057

30,975

1.1%

2.0%

QLD

21,211

25,687

35,156

1.9%

2.6%

SA

2,928

3,045

3,851

0.4%

1.4%

WA

14,313

19,380

28,133

3.1%

3.4%

TAS

1,042

1,046

1,255

0.0%

0.9%

NT

1,388

1,771

2,355

2.5%

2.7%

Australia

79,199

93,167

126,588

1.6%

2.4%

Source: ACIL Allen Consulting (2014a)

Table 27: Forecasts of petroleum product DEC (2011 prices)

State/Territory

DEC 2011

DEC 2020-21

DEC 2031

($m)

($m)

($m)

NSW

239

261

338

VIC

282

314

421

QLD

288

349

478

SA

40

41

52

WA

195

264

383

TAS

14

14

17

NT

19

24

32

Australia

1,077

1,267

1,722

Source: ACIL Allen Consulting (2014a)