1.5.1.6 Rail corridors in Sydney-Newcastle- Wollongong

Figure 54 shows that passenger loadings on Sydney's rail corridors are projected to increase over time, reaching or exceeding crush capacity before 2031 on the Western, North Shore and Illawarra lines, and inner parts of the Northern and Richmond lines.

These projections are different in some respects from projections in the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan,279 which projects significant congestion in 2031 on the following rail corridors:

■ East Hills/Airport Line - with passenger displacement from Revesby to Green Square;

■ Western Line - a high level of overcrowding from Strathfield to City and Westmead to Parramatta;

■ North Shore Line - a high level of crowding from Chatswood to City;

■ Northern Line - a high level of crowding from Ryde and on approach to Strathfield; and

■ South and Inner West Lines - a high level of crowding from Auburn to Strathfield and to City.

This variation reflects the different methodologies used for the Audit and the NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan including, for example, different definitions of crush capacity.

Table 36: Top 12 destinations in Sydney-Newcastle-Wollongong for rail trips by passenger hours travelled (PHT) in 2011 and projected in 2031

Source: Veitch Lister Consulting (2014b)

Figure 54: Sydney rail network weekday passenger demand relative to crush capacity in 2011 and projected in 2031

Source: Veitch Lister Consulting (2014b)

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279. Transport for New South Wales (2012), p. 95