5.2 Drivers of infrastructure demand - population and economy

Both economic and population growth in SA are projected to be slower than for Australia as a whole. As a result, its share of both is projected to decline.

The SA Government's medium level projection for the state's population in 2031 is 2.02 million, approximately two per cent higher than the projection by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.427

The SA Government's draft Integrated Transport and Land Use Plan for the state (the draft plan) notes that 82 per cent of the state's population lives in greater Adelaide.428 Both the ABS projections and the SA Government's draft plan indicate that population growth will be predominantly in the greater Adelaide region.

Figure 88 shows that Adelaide is projected to account for the majority of SA population growth.

The SA Government's draft plan indicates that in each of six regions outside greater Adelaide, population growth between 2011 and 2036 is typically expected to be around 5,000 people.429 Further detail is provided in the Audit paper on population estimates and projections.430

Figure 88: Population projections for South Australia, 2011-31

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2013c) 431

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427. The projections were released in December 2010, prior to the 2011 Census.

428. South Australian Department of Planning, Transport and Infrastructure (2013), p. 31

429. The SA Government uses these regions for its planning purposes. The expected regional population increases range from around 1,500 on Kangaroo Island to approximately 8,000 in the Far North region.

430. Infrastructure Australia (2015b)

431. Series B (medium level) projections.