In 2011, SA gas transmission pipelines had an annual throughput of 117 petajoules (PJ). Gas distribution pipelines had an annual throughput of 22 PJ.
The DEC from gas pipelines in SA in 2011 was estimated to be $237 million, made up of $86 million from transmission and $151 million from distribution.
The main pipelines in SA are the Moomba to Adelaide Pipeline and SEA (Port Campbell to Adelaide) Gas Pipeline.
The Audit projects an increase in the DEC of gas pipeline infrastructure of $54 million to $291 million in 2031, made up of $19 million from transmission and $34 million from distribution. This 23 per cent rise compares to a forecast for the SA's economy to grow by 55 per cent over the same period.
AEMO453 has forecast a decline in gas consumption in SA, from 104 PJ in 2011 to 81 PJ in 2031 on its medium scenario.
As with electricity, there are several reasons for the apparent inconsistency between the Audit's forecast rise in DEC in the gas sector, and the AEMO's forecast of a fall in demand. In particular, the DEC analysis was finalised before the latest AEMO gas market forecasts were published. Those forecasts were the first to show a break in what had previously been a direct link between economic growth and rising energy consumption. Also, AEMO reports and forecasts gas consumption in petajoules, whereas DEC is a measure of the value-add provided by gas infrastructure, in dollars. The two are not necessarily perfectly correlated.
Although domestic gas consumption is forecast to continue declining, new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants on the east coast have opened the market to export. Future value-add from gas infrastructure will come from both domestic usage (where demand may continue to fall), and from the export market. The impact of this will largely be in Queensland and the NT.
The SA gas market is connected with NSW, Victoria and (indirectly) Queensland via a number of gas pipelines. SA has considerable conventional gas reserves located in the Cooper Basin. However, the majority of this gas has historically been supplied to NSW via the Moomba to Sydney pipeline, with the rest of Moomba's production supplying Adelaide via the Moomba to Adelaide pipeline. In addition, SA imports gas from Victoria via the South East Australian Gas pipeline.
SA also contains unconventional gas reserves in the form of shale gas. There are some plans to develop these resources, although at this stage it is unclear whether their development is commercially viable.
There is wide acknowledgement of an ongoing structural shift in the gas market as Australia significantly expands its ability to export gas. There is also uncertainty about whether existing gas market and regulatory frameworks are well suited to handle the shift. Within this context, the AEMC recently conducted a gas market scoping study, which recommended Australia conduct a strategic review of the gas sector, including a review of future market developments over the next 10 to 15 years and a review of the short-term trading market and the declared wholesale gas market.
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453. Australian Energy Market Operator (2014b)