In 2011, Tasmanian gas transmission pipelines had an annual throughput of 16 petajoules (PJ). Gas distribution networks had an annual throughput of 2 PJ.
The main pipeline is the Tasmanian Gas Pipeline, which transports gas from Longford in Victoria to Bell Bay. There is significant capacity available and therefore little need to upgrade it in the foreseeable future.
The DEC from gas pipelines in Tasmania in 2011 was estimated to be $28 million, made up of $15 million for transmission and $13 million for distribution.
The Audit projects an increase in the DEC of gas pipeline infrastructure in Tasmania of $17 million (a 60 per cent rise) to $44 million between 2011 and 2031. This increase is made up of $9 million from transmission and $8 million from distribution. The state's economy is expected to grow by 48 per cent over the same period.
AEMO484 forecast a decline in gas consumption in Tasmania, from 12 PJ in 2014 to 8 PJ in 2031. As with electricity, there are several reasons for the inconsistency between the Audit's forecasts and AEMOs. The DEC analysis was finalised before the latest AEMO gas market forecasts were published. Those forecasts were the first to show a break in what had previously been a direct link between economic growth and rising energy consumption. Also, AEMO reports and forecasts gas consumption in petajoules, whereas DEC is a measure of the value-add provided by gas infrastructure, in dollars. The two are not necessarily perfectly correlated.
Although domestic gas consumption is forecast to continue declining, new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants on the east coast have opened the market to export. Value-add from gas infrastructure in future will come from both domestic usage (where demand may continue to fall), and from the export market. The impact of this will largely be in Queensland and the NT.
Tasmania does not have any significant conventional or non-conventional gas reserves.
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484. Australian Energy Market Operator (2014b)