7.2 Drivers of infrastructure demand - population and economy

Based on medium level projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), shown in Table 85, the ACT's population is projected to reach 520,000 by 2031 - an increase of 152,000 people, or 41 per cent, from 2011. The ACT Government496 projects a slower rate of growth, forecasting a population of 499,000 people in 2032.497

From 2011, the ACT's economy will grow at a slightly slower rate than Australia as a whole, although the difference will be small and the ACT will broadly maintain its share of the national economy. The projected population growth is faster than the country as a whole. This implies that the ACT will see slower growth on a per capita basis, although Gross State Product per capita will remain above the national average.

Table 85: Projected population and economic growth for the Australian Capital Territory

2011

% of National

2031

% of National

Increase % 2011-31

Population (persons)

367,985

1.6%

520,412

1.7%

41%

Gross State Product ($m)

31,323

2.2%

56,194

2.2%

79%

Source: ACIL Allen Consulting (2014a)498

Higher growth is forecast from 2011 to 2031 in North Canberra, South Canberra, Belconnen, Gungahlin and Cotter-Namadgi. Tuggeranong and Woden SA3 regions are expected to see more modest growth.




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496. Australian Capital Territory Government Chief Minister and Treasury Directorate (2013)

497. The ACT only provides data for each five year interval, hence a 2032 projection rather than 2031.

498. Gross State Product is in 2010-11 prices.