In 2011, ACT gas distribution pipelines had an annual throughput of 7 petajoules (PJ). The Audit did not identify any major pipelines in the ACT.
The DEC from gas pipelines in the ACT in 2011 was estimated at $39 million. The Audit projects a fall in the DEC of gas pipeline infrastructure of $17 million, or 44 per cent, to $22 million in 2031. This compares to projected economic growth for the ACT of 79 per cent.
The ACT is included within NSW in AEMO's forecasts,512 which predict a decline in gas consumption across the broader region. Gas consumption in NSW513 is now forecast to fall from 133 PJ in 2014 to 131 PJ in 2031, including a brief drop below 120 PJ per year early in the next decade.
As with electricity, there are several reasons the Audit's forecast rise in DEC in the gas sector, and AEMO's forecast of a fall in demand, may not be directly comparable. In particular, the DEC analysis was finalised before the latest AEMO gas market forecasts were published. Those forecasts were the first to show a break in what had previously been a direct link between economic growth and rising energy consumption. Also, AEMO reports and forecasts gas consumption in petajoules, whereas DEC is a measure of the value-add provided by gas infrastructure, in dollars. The two are not necessarily perfectly correlated.
Although domestic gas consumption has declined, and is forecast to continue to do so, new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) plants on the east coast have opened up the market to export. Value-add from gas infrastructure in future will come from both domestic usage (where demand may continue to fall), and from the export market. The impact of this will largely be in Queensland and the NT.
The ACT gas market is connected with NSW, Victoria, SA and (indirectly) to Queensland via two main gas pipelines, the Moomba to Sydney pipeline and the Eastern Gas pipeline.
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512. Australian Energy Market Operator (2014b)
513. Australian Energy Market Operator (2014b)