Spend to the end of the contract

3.17  HMRC has made substantial use of the flexibility within the Aspire contract to change the original scope and volumes. We estimate that by contract-end in June 2017, HMRC will have spent £10.4 billion, much more than the £4.1 billion used as the central case when evaluating Capgemini's bid. The rise in cost (Figure 10 overleaf) is due to:

  merging Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise in 2005-06 (£1.0 billion);

  increasing the volume and scope of the contract including doing more project development work than originally modelled, storing more data and introducing new desktop services, applications and contact centre services (£3.0 billion); and

  deciding in 2007 to extend the contract by three years (£2.3 billion).

3.18  We consider that HMRC should have taken steps to manage its costs better over the life of the contract. In particular, HMRC committed itself to an extension worth £2.3 billion when only three years of a ten-year contract had passed. This is likely to have constrained its ability in recent years to change the contract. Further, it chose to increase spend by £3 billion knowing that the contract may not consistently provide market prices. Over the lifetime of the contract, it would have been good practice for HMRC to directly market test some significant elements. For example, HMRC could have exercised its contractual right to withdraw services and procure through open competition. This would have provided greater assurance that the £10.4 billion represents a market-comparable price. HMRC say it did not market test for a number of reasons, including: technical constraints; the need to respond with speed to legislative changes; and contractual constraints, such as exclusivity, that operated at points during the contract.

Figure 10
Aspire could cost more than £10 billion

 

£m

 

Original projection based on 2002-03 volumes

4,126

 

Modelled impact of changes up to and including the merger between Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise

974

 

 

 

 

Modelled contract value over ten years at time of merger

5,100

 

Increased contract volume or scope

3,027

 

 

 

 

Forecast spend over original ten-year term

8,127

 

Three-year extension from 2014 to 2017

2,315

 

 

 

 

Forecast total spend by June 2014

10,442

 

Notes

1  All numbers are in 2013-14 prices and are net of negotiated savings.

2  We have calculated the value of the three-year extension by multiplying 2013-14 spend by three.

3  The ten-year forecast has been calculated by adding the £7.9 billion spent by the end of March to HMRC's forecast spend of £204 million between April and June 2014.

4  Increased volume and scope includes additional project development work, additional data centre costs, new desktop services, new applications and new contact centre services.

5  The modelled impact of the merger between Inland Revenue and HM Customs and Excise is £918 million. The £974 million in the table above includes this and £56 million resulting from various minor changes to the contract between contract award and the merger.

Source: National Audit Office analysis of HM Revenue & Customs' data

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